Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds Rate at 2.25% Amid Tariff and Oil Risks
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 36,091.60 | +0.74% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | +0.31% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | -0.50% |
| WTI Crude | 92.44 | +1.57% |
| Natural Gas | 2.99 | +1.32% |
| Gold | 4,480.60 | +2.62% |
| Brent Crude | 96.75 | +1.17% |
| Bitcoin | 77,895.85 | +0.77% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.50 | - | 53 |
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Press Conference by BoC | - | - | - |
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Percent: 6.4 (2026-07-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 6.5,5,5.9,6.9,6.5,6.4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 3,860m | 3,600m | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-09-04) | |||
| Unemployment Rate | 6.40 | 6.40 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 75,100 | 15,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 38,600 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65.10 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 36,600 | - | 04:30 |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 55.10 | 56.20 | 06:00 |
- Bank of Canada keeps policy rate at 2.25% while flagging tariff and energy price risks.
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI slips to 53.0 from 53.5, pointing to modest factory slowdown.
- TSX gains 0.74% and 10-year yields drop 3.43% after the hold decision.
Yesterday's Recap
The Bank of Canada left its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25% on September 2, matching consensus and the prior level. Governor remarks highlighted the need to stay realistic about Canada-U.S. trade frictions and persistent fuel-cost pressures that could lift inflation above the 3.03% July reading.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.0, its first decline in several months and a signal of softer export orders. Markets responded with the S&P/TSX advancing 0.74% to 36,091.60, led by energy and materials shares. USD/CAD rose 0.31% to 1.39 while the 10-year Government of Canada yield fell 3.43% to 3.42% as investors priced limited near-term policy easing.
WTI crude climbed 1.57% to 92.44 and natural gas added 1.32%, reinforcing the inflation concerns cited by officials. The press conference underscored that the committee weighed multiple risks without providing fresh forward guidance on the next move. Record foreign inflows into Government of Canada bonds in the second quarter helped contain domestic yields despite global volatility.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to the August trade balance release at 4:30 ET on September 3, with consensus pointing to a C$3.6 billion surplus. Friday brings the high-impact labor force survey, including unemployment expected to hold at 6.4% and employment change forecast at +15,000. The Ivey PMI is also due at 6:00 ET and is projected to rise to 56.2.
Any material beat or miss on jobs will shift market pricing for the October Bank of Canada meeting. Energy prices will remain in focus given their direct link to both CPI and export revenues. Traders will monitor U.S.
tariff announcements for any fresh Canada-specific measures.
Other Economic Notes
Record foreign inflows into Government of Canada bonds in the second quarter have helped keep domestic yields contained despite global bond-market volatility. Higher oil prices are supporting Alberta output but also feeding into headline inflation risks that the Bank of Canada must balance against growth. Housing starts continued their decline in July, extending the slowdown in residential construction amid elevated borrowing costs.
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