Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds at 2.25% on Trade Risks
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 36,633.10 | +1.50% |
| USD/CAD | 1.38 | -0.35% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | +0.06% |
| WTI Crude | 90.72 | -0.64% |
| Natural Gas | 2.93 | +0.51% |
| Gold | 4,512.00 | +0.45% |
| Brent Crude | 95.11 | -0.43% |
| Bitcoin | 81,281.54 | +5.15% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.50 | - | 53 |
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Press Conference by BoC | - | - | - |
| Trade Balance | 4,200m | 3,600m | 770m |
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Percent: 6.4 (2026-07-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 6.5,5,5.9,6.9,6.5,6.4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 6.40 | 6.40 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 75,100 | 15,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 38,600 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65.10 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 36,600 | - | 04:30 |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 55.10 | 56.20 | 06:00 |
- Bank of Canada keeps policy rate at 2.25% as trade risks mount
- August trade balance misses sharply at C$0.77 billion
- Labor data and Ivey PMI due today to test rate-hold outlook
Yesterday's Recap
The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, matching consensus and the prior level, while the accompanying press conference offered no shift in forward guidance. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.0 from 53.5, signaling a modest slowdown in factory activity. Statistics Canada reported the August trade balance at C$0.77 billion, well below the C$3.6 billion consensus and the prior C$4.2 billion, reflecting weaker exports amid rising tariff concerns.
The S&P/TSX rose 1.50% to 36,633.10 while USD/CAD fell 0.35% to 1.38. Canada 10-year yields dropped 3.43% to 3.42% as markets digested the steady policy stance. WTI crude declined 0.64% to 90.72 amid mixed energy flows.
The soft trade print reinforced expectations that external risks would keep the Bank on hold.
The Day Ahead
Statistics Canada will release the August labor report at 04:30 ET, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.4% and employment change forecast at +15,000. Full-time and part-time employment changes plus labor-force participation will also be published. The Ivey PMI is due at 06:00 ET with a consensus of 56.2 versus the prior 55.1, providing a timely gauge of business sentiment.
Markets will parse the labor details for signs of softening demand that could alter Bank of Canada rate expectations. CAD crosses and Canada 2-year yields are likely to react immediately to any surprise in the headline employment figure. Energy prices will remain in focus given ongoing Middle East supply concerns.
Other Economic Notes
A Deloitte Canada study warned that a U.S. exit from CUSMA could materially reduce Canadian GDP through disrupted supply chains and lower exports. Canada CPI YoY stood at 3.03% as of July, keeping real policy rates restrictive relative to the 2.25% nominal rate.
The Bank of Canada also unveiled a new vertical $20 bill featuring King Charles, though the announcement carried no monetary-policy implications. Broader equity and commodity moves showed TSX strength alongside firmer gold at 4,512.00, reflecting defensive positioning amid trade uncertainty.
