Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds Amid $20B Tariffs on US Goods
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 36,123.10 | -1.07% |
| USD/CAD | 1.38 | -0.26% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.09% |
| WTI Crude | 95.44 | +2.59% |
| Natural Gas | 2.90 | -0.58% |
| Gold | 4,451.40 | +1.31% |
| Brent Crude | 100.75 | +2.89% |
| Bitcoin | 78,993.00 | +0.71% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Exports (Trade Dispute Focus) | Type: macro_line | Exports (CAD mn): 23.73 (2026-06-01) | Range: -16.08–37.85 | Trend(5pt): 25.45,5.492,1.05,-7.62,23.73
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Canada imposes $20 billion retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods amid widening trade dispute
- Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2.25% with CPI YoY at 3.03%
- TSX drops 1.07% while WTI crude climbs 2.59% to $95.44 and CAD strengthens
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets closed lower as the S&P/TSX fell 1.07% to 36,123.10 amid tariff announcements. Canada implemented retaliatory duties on roughly $20 billion of U.S. imports, targeting sectors exposed to cross-border supply chains.
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate target unchanged at 2.25%, citing persistent inflation pressures with the latest CPI reading at 3.03% year-over-year. No economic data releases occurred on the calendar. USD/CAD declined 0.26% to 1.38 as the Canadian dollar posted modest gains.
Government bond yields diverged, with the 2-year rising 1 basis point to 2.27% while the 10-year fell 12 basis points to 3.42%. Energy prices advanced sharply, with WTI crude up 2.59% to $95.44 and Brent crude gaining 2.89% to $100.75. Natural gas eased 0.58% to 2.90 while gold rose 1.31% to 4,451.40.
The Day Ahead
The domestic calendar remains empty of scheduled releases or Bank of Canada events through September 10. Market participants will monitor developments in the U.S.-Canada trade dispute for any escalation signals or negotiation updates. Energy prices will stay in focus given recent surges above $95 per barrel for WTI.
Currency traders will track CAD crosses against the backdrop of steady policy rates and higher oil. Fixed-income desks will assess any follow-through in the 10-year yield decline for clues on longer-term rate expectations. Equity investors will watch resource-heavy TSX components for continued sensitivity to commodity moves.
Other Economic Notes
Escalating tariffs introduce direct cost pressures on imported intermediate goods and consumer products, potentially sustaining headline inflation near current levels. Higher oil prices provide a revenue tailwind for energy producers and government fiscal balances yet add to imported inflation risks through refined products. The absence of near-term data leaves markets reliant on incoming trade-flow statistics and corporate guidance for growth signals.
Mortgage and refinance rates eased slightly at the start of the shortened week, offering limited relief to household borrowing costs. Broader equity weakness reflected tariff uncertainty more than domestic fundamentals.
