Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds at 2.25% After Jobs Miss Weakens CAD
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,906.60 | -0.60% |
| USD/CAD | 1.38 | +0.29% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.26% |
| WTI Crude | 97.38 | +1.38% |
| Natural Gas | 2.79 | -1.03% |
| Gold | 4,427.80 | +0.27% |
| Brent Crude | 102.07 | +0.85% |
| Bitcoin | 78,016.11 | -0.31% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment Rate %: 6.4 (2026-07-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 6.5,5,5.9,6.9,6.5,6.4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Bank of Canada keeps policy rate at 2.25% with inflation risks rising.
- Canada sheds nearly 42,000 jobs, sending CAD to 72 cents USD.
- TSX falls 0.60% while WTI crude climbs 1.38% to 97.38.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada reported a sharp 42,000-job decline that weighed directly on the loonie and reinforced expectations for steady policy. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25%, citing intensifying inflation pressures with CPI YoY at 3.03%. The S&P/TSX Composite dropped 0.60% to close at 35,906.60 as export-oriented shares faced pressure from fresh U.S.
tariff threats. USD/CAD rose 0.29% to 1.38 while the 2-year government yield edged up 1.00% to 2.27% and the 10-year yield fell 3.43% to 3.42%. WTI crude gained 1.38% to 97.38 and Brent rose 0.85% to 102.07, supporting energy names despite the broader equity decline.
Natural gas slipped 1.03% to 2.79 and gold added 0.27% to 4,427.80. No other Canadian data prints occurred, leaving the jobs miss and rate decision as the dominant market drivers.
The Day Ahead
No Canadian economic releases or Bank of Canada speeches are scheduled for September 10. Markets will monitor U.S. CPI data for any spillover effects on CAD crosses and energy prices.
Traders will also track developments in U.S.-Canada trade negotiations after new product bans and tariffs were announced. Bank earnings commentary may provide additional color on credit conditions amid the trade tensions. Attention remains focused on how the recent jobs weakness and steady policy rate shape positioning into the next decision window.
Other Economic Notes
Bank CEOs maintained a constructive credit outlook even as U.S. tariffs and product bans escalate, signaling resilience in domestic lending. National Bank of Canada executives stressed disciplined growth at the Scotiabank summit while highlighting balance-sheet strength.
Export sectors face mounting headwinds from the intensifying trade dispute, with potential downside risks to manufacturing and resource shipments. The mixed yield curve move reflects caution over inflation persistence rather than any immediate easing signal from policymakers.
Global Macro News
Escalating U.S.-Canada trade frictions, including new tariffs and bans, threaten to disrupt cross-border supply chains and weigh on Canadian exports. The Canadian dollar weakened alongside broader risk-off moves in commodity currencies. ↓ p.2
