Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds at 2.25% as Jobs Slump
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,506.30 | -1.11% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | +0.39% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.04% |
| WTI Crude | 99.51 | -2.90% |
| Natural Gas | 2.80 | -1.24% |
| Gold | 4,378.30 | +0.32% |
| Brent Crude | 104.20 | -3.19% |
| Bitcoin | 76,814.01 | +0.32% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment Rate (%): 6.4 (2026-07-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 6.5,5,5.9,6.9,6.5,6.4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Canada sheds nearly 42,000 jobs, sending USD/CAD to 1.39
- Bank of Canada keeps policy rate at 2.25% with CPI at 3.03%
- TSX falls 1.11% while 10-year yields drop 3.43%
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian employment data released earlier this week showed a sharp contraction of almost 42,000 jobs, weighing on the loonie and pushing USD/CAD 0.39% higher to 1.39. The S&P/TSX Composite declined 1.11% to close at 35,506.30 amid the weak labor print and fresh US-Canada tariff measures. WTI Crude fell 2.90% to 99.51 and Brent Crude dropped 3.19% to 104.20, while Natural Gas eased 1.24% to 2.80.
Gold advanced 0.32% to 4,378.30 and Bitcoin gained 0.32% to 76,814.01. Canada 2-year yields rose 1.00% to 2.27% but 10-year yields fell 3.43% to 3.42%, producing a modest flattening. No economic releases occurred on September 10, so price action reflected the prior employment miss and ongoing counter-tariff implementation.
The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold the policy rate at 2.25% was viewed as consistent with mixed inflation signals around the 3.03% CPI level.
The Day Ahead
No Canadian economic data releases or Bank of Canada events are scheduled for September 11. Markets will monitor any further statements on US-Canada trade measures and their limited impact as assessed by RBC. Energy prices remain sensitive to global supply risks that have already lifted WTI and Brent above recent ranges.
Fixed-income traders will watch for any follow-through in the 2-year and 10-year yield curve after yesterday’s mixed moves. Equity desks expect continued focus on tariff effects and the recent employment weakness when assessing TSX direction.
Other Economic Notes
Canadian home prices have not declined enough to restore affordability, with the Bank of Canada’s index remaining well above its long-run norm. National Bank of Canada released the sixth edition of its Family Advantage report, highlighting household financial pressures. Canada’s counter-tariffs on selected US goods took effect this week, though RBC estimates only a modest trade shock.
The loonie’s drop to roughly 72 cents US reflects both the jobs contraction and tariff uncertainty. Broader Canadian equity and currency markets continue to price in limited near-term policy relief from the central bank.
