Ivey Slumps, Trade Surges; Loonie Steadies

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the Equities Daily

Ivey Slumps, Trade Surges; Loonie Steadies

4,200m Trade Balance58.20 Ivey PMI Seasonally

S&P/TSX35,649.50+0.37%

USD/CAD1.42-0.18%

EUR/CAD1.59-0.50%

WTI Crude90.33+1.00%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
S&P/TSX	35,649.50	+0.37%
USD/CAD	1.42	-0.18%
EUR/CAD	1.59	-0.50%
WTI Crude	90.33	+1.00%
Natural Gas	3.18	+2.02%
Gold	4,144.90	-1.01%
Brent Crude	102.18	+1.59%
Bitcoin	83,572.31	-2.32%
Canada 2Y Govt Yield	3.26%	+1 bp
Canada 10Y Govt Yield	3.96%	+3 bp

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
Trade Balance	790m	1,700m	4,200m
Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted	64.30	65.20	58.20

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time

Friday (2026-10-09)
Headline Unemployment Rate	6.40	6.50	08:30
Employment Change	-41,700	7,000	08:30
Full-Time Employment Change	-35,900	-	08:30
Labor Force Participation	65	-	08:30
Part-Time Employment Change	-5,800	-	08:30

Ivey PMI fell to 58.2 from 64.3, missing the 65.2 consensus, though the reading still signals solid expansion in Canadian business activity.
The trade surplus ballooned to C$4.2B, far above the C$1.7B consensus and more than double the prior C$790M, as exports outperformed.
Attention turns to Friday's labour report, with consensus at a 7K employment gain and the jobless rate edging to 6.5% from 6.4%.

Yesterday's Recap

Canadian data delivered a mixed but net-positive picture on Tuesday. The trade balance swung to a C$4.2B surplus, crushing the C$1.7B consensus and more than doubling the prior C$790M surplus, a print that Reuters flagged as a key driver of loonie strength intraday. The Ivey PMI seasonally adjusted index, however, retreated sharply to 58.2 from 64.3, undershooting the 65.2 consensus — still comfortably in expansion territory but suggesting momentum cooled at the end of Q3.

In rates, the Canada 2-year yield ticked up 1 bp to 3.26% and the 10-year rose 3 bp to 3.96%, tracking a broader developed-market bond selloff. Equities found support: the S&P/TSX advanced 0.37% to 35,649.50, buoyed by energy strength. Crude rallied hard, with WTI up 1.00% to $90.33 and Brent climbing 1.59% to $102.18, while natural gas surged 2.02% to $3.18.

Gold slipped 1.01% to $4,144.90 and Bitcoin fell 2.32% to $83,572. In FX, USD/CAD eased 0.18% to 1.42 and EUR/CAD dropped 0.50% to 1.59, leaving the loonie firmer against both majors.

The Day Ahead

The calendar is quiet until Friday, when Statistics Canada releases the September Labour Force Survey at 8:30 ET — the week's marquee domestic event. Consensus looks for headline employment growth of just 7K following August's disappointing 41.7K decline, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 6.5% from 6.4%. Full-time employment fell 35.9K last month and part-time dropped 5.8K, so composition will matter as much as the headline.

The participation rate, last at 65%, will be scrutinized for signs of discouraged-worker dynamics. A third consecutive soft print would sharpen the case for further BoC easing, while an upside surprise could validate the more hawkish wing of the market. With no domestic releases Wednesday or Thursday, CAD traders will take cues from oil and the USD backdrop.

Other Economic Notes

The commodity complex is doing heavy lifting for the Canadian terms of trade, with Brent above $102 and WTI near $90 providing a tailwind for energy-linked provincial revenues and the loonie. ↓ p.2

Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

The wider-than-expected August trade surplus underscores that export volumes are holding up despite tariff frictions, a positive signal for Q3 GDP arithmetic. Meanwhile, Canadian bank earnings season is approaching, with National Bank authorizing a buyback and Royal Bank featuring in blue-chip screens — a reminder that financials remain the TSX's largest sector weight. Housing-adjacent sentiment is also in focus as markets weigh how mortgage renewal dynamics interact with the BoC's easing path.

Global Macro News

Global bond markets remain under pressure, with the WSJ noting the Treasury selloff extended into a fresh session and still-higher yields capping equity enthusiasm even after last session's surge. Oil's renewed strength — Brent up 1.59% and WTI up 1.00% — reflects supply-side jitters, and the Iran conflict is now explicitly cited by Vietnam's central bank as an inflationary and funding-cost risk, illustrating how energy shocks are complicating Asian monetary policy. In the US, Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated that rates will come back down while the Fed points to a resilient economy — a stance that keeps the USD supported and frames the policy divergence trade for CAD.

Gold's 1% pullback from record territory suggests some profit-taking in haven assets as risk appetite stabilizes. Bitcoin's 2.3% slide to $83,572 signals cooling speculative appetite. For Canada, the net effect is a supportive commodity tape offset by a firm dollar and higher global term premia.

Continuation

BoC Watch

The Bank of Canada's policy rate stands at 2.25% following the September 28 decision, and the governing council's communications have leaned toward a patient, data-dependent hold. Recent commentary flagged that Canadians expect higher inflation as the Bank weighs further moves — a signal that inflation expectations management remains central to the mandate. CIBC has argued publicly that the case for rate hikes in Canada is weaker than the Fed's, reflecting the growth gap between the two economies; the market appears to agree, pricing a shallower path for the overnight rate.

With CPI at 3.00% year-over-year, the Bank has room to hold while watching Friday's labour data for slack signals. The long-running security guard strike at the Bank, now past 100 days, is a minor operational footnote but underscores internal cost pressures. QT continues to run in the background as bond holdings normalize.

For markets, the key tension is between sticky 3% inflation arguing for caution and a softening labour market arguing for cuts — Friday's employment print should resolve some of that ambiguity and set the tone for the October 28 decision.

Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)