Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Manufacturing PMI Contracts Below 50
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,801.10 | +0.51% |
| USD/CAD | 1.40 | +0.03% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.56 | +0.26% |
| WTI Crude | 97.26 | +0.83% |
| Natural Gas | 2.90 | +1.40% |
| Gold | 3,924.60 | -1.13% |
| Brent Crude | 105.08 | +0.30% |
| Bitcoin | 77,322.01 | +0.84% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 3.28% | -8 bp |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.78% | -6 bp |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 51.50 | - | 49.60 |
Canada Trade Balance: Exports Trend | Type: macro_line | Exports (CAD): 5.544e+10 (2026-08-01) | Range: 4.386e+10–5.565e+10 | Trend(5pt): 4.535e+10,4.713e+10,4.763e+10,4.427e+10,5.544e+10
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-11-04) | |||
| Trade Balance | 4,200m | 3,700m | 08:30 |
| Friday (2026-11-06) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.50 | 6.50 | 08:30 |
| Employment Change | -68,300 | 15,000 | 08:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | -35,400 | - | 08:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 64.80 | - | 08:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | -32,900 | - | 08:30 |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 58.20 | 58 | 10:00 |
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in November from 51.5, signaling contraction in Canadian manufacturing activity
- Canadian 2Y and 10Y yields declined 8bp and 6bp respectively, with front-end bull-steepening suggesting markets price peak-rate dynamics despite hike chatter
- USD/CAD holds near 1.40 while TSX futures rise on Trump's trade deal "concept" signal; attention shifts to Friday's employment report with consensus at 6.5% unemployment
Yesterday's Recap
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index printed at 49.6 for November, down sharply from the prior 51.5 reading and slipping below the 50 expansion threshold — a clear signal that Canadian manufacturing activity contracted last month. The print underscores the toll of elevated interest rates and soft global demand on goods-producing sectors. Markets responded with a front-end rally in Government of Canada bonds, with the 2-year yield falling 8 basis points to 3.28% and the 10-year easing 6 basis points to 3.78%, a bull-steepening move that suggests investors are leaning toward peak-rate pricing even as hike chatter persists.
The S&P/TSX Composite advanced 0.51% to close at 35,801.10, supported by energy names as WTI crude rose 0.83% to $97.26 and natural gas gained 1.40% to $2.90. The Canadian dollar was little changed, with USD/CAD at 1.40 (+0.03%) and EUR/CAD at 1.56 (+0.26%). Gold slipped 1.13% to $3,924.60, while Bitcoin gained 0.84% to $77,322.
The Day Ahead
The Canadian calendar is light today, with no tier-one releases scheduled. Attention turns to Wednesday's Trade Balance report, where consensus expects the surplus to narrow to $3.7 billion from the prior $4.2 billion, reflecting softer energy export volumes and moderating commodity prices. The week's marquee event remains Friday's Labour Force Survey, with consensus forecasting the unemployment rate to hold at 6.5% and employment to rebound by 15,000 following last month's steep 68,300 decline.
Full-time and part-time employment changes, along with the labor force participation rate (previously 64.8%), will be scrutinized for signs of labor market stabilization. Friday also brings the Ivey PMI, with consensus at 58.0 versus the prior 58.2, offering a read on business activity momentum heading into year-end.
Other Economic Notes
The federal budget's framing around "changing Canada's growth model," per Finance Minister Champagne, signals a policy pivot toward investment-led expansion amid weak productivity. The manufacturing contraction adds to evidence that rate-sensitive sectors are buckling under restrictive financial conditions. ↓ p.2
