Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Romania Holds, Turkey IP Slips; Poland GDP Due
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 13,704.50 | -0.78% |
| iShares Poland | 44.57 | +0.93% |
| EUR/PLN | 4.30 | +0.03% |
| EUR/HUF | 364.62 | +0.35% |
| EUR/CZK | 24.25 | +0.08% |
| USD/TRY | 47.75 | +0.05% |
| Brent Crude | 89.49 | +0.65% |
| Gold | 4,461.00 | +1.78% |
| Bitcoin | 63,748.92 | -0.25% |
| Poland 10Y Govt Yield | 5.51% | -4.01% |
| Hungary 10Y Govt Yield | 5.26% | -6.90% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | -0.10 | - | -1.40 |
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
Poland 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 5.51 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.87–7.82 | Trend(6pt): 1.87,7.24,5.24,5.86,5.74,5.51
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.60 | - | 23:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3.50 | - | 23:30 |
| Thursday (2026-08-13) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.60 | - | 23:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3.50 | - | 23:30 |
- Romania's central bank holds its policy rate at 6.5% as expected, maintaining steady monetary conditions.
- Turkish industrial production contracts 1.4% year-over-year, extending the manufacturing slowdown.
- Polish equities advance 0.93% while 10-year yields fall 4 basis points ahead of preliminary GDP data.
Yesterday's Recap
Romania's central bank voted to hold its key interest rate at 6.5%, aligning with consensus and leaving borrowing costs unchanged amid stable inflation trends. Turkey reported industrial production falling 1.4% year-over-year in July, a sharper decline than the prior -0.1% reading and signaling persistent weakness in factory output. Equity markets closed mixed across the region, with the BIST 100 declining 0.78% to 13,704.50 while iShares Poland gained 0.93% to 44.57.
Government bond yields eased notably, with Poland's 10-year yield dropping 4.01% to 5.51% and Hungary's falling 6.90% to 5.26%. Currency moves remained contained, as EUR/PLN rose 0.03% to 4.30 and EUR/HUF climbed 0.35% to 364.62. Brent crude advanced 0.65% to 89.49, supporting energy importers, while gold rose 1.78% to 4,461.00 on safe-haven demand.
USD/TRY edged 0.05% higher to 47.75, reflecting limited immediate pressure on the lira.
The Day Ahead
Poland releases preliminary GDP growth figures for the second quarter at 23:30 ET, covering both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year readings after prior prints of 0.6% and 3.5%. Markets will scrutinize the data for signs of sustained expansion that could reinforce the National Bank of Poland's higher-for-longer stance. Any upside surprise would likely keep rate-cut expectations anchored beyond 2026, while a downside miss could revive speculation about earlier easing.
No other high-impact releases are scheduled for the Czech Republic, Hungary or Turkey today, leaving regional attention centered on Warsaw. Traders will also monitor any follow-through from yesterday's Romanian decision and Turkish production figures into European trading hours.
Other Economic Notes
Energy import dependence continues to weigh on all five economies, with Brent above 89 dollars amplifying current-account risks. EU cohesion fund negotiations remain a key driver for Poland and Hungary, where disbursement timelines directly influence fiscal space and investor sentiment. Regional currencies showed limited volatility despite the mixed equity session, suggesting investors are positioned for the Polish GDP release rather than reacting aggressively to external headlines.
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