Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Polish Assets Slip Ahead of Turkey Trade Data
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 14,575.50 | -0.24% |
| iShares Poland | 43.74 | -2.20% |
| EUR/PLN | 4.34 | +0.72% |
| EUR/HUF | 365.41 | +1.08% |
| EUR/CZK | 24.15 | +0.16% |
| USD/TRY | 48.24 | +0.23% |
| Brent Crude | 88.20 | -1.67% |
| Gold | 4,626.10 | +0.36% |
| Bitcoin | 79,894.23 | +1.10% |
| Poland 10Y Govt Yield | 5.51% | -4.01% |
| Hungary 10Y Govt Yield | 5.26% | -6.90% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Turkey Trade Balance | Type: macro_line | Trade Balance (USD mn): 2.394e+10 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.956e+10–2.472e+10 | Trend(6pt): 1.956e+10,2.075e+10,2.118e+10,2.346e+10,2.439e+10,2.394e+10
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade Final | -10,370m | -7,400m | 03:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.10 | - | 03:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.50 | - | 03:00 |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.60 | - | 03:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3 | - | 03:30 |
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | - | 09:00 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1.78 | - | 03:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 31.75 | - | 03:00 |
- Polish assets underperformed as iShares Poland fell 2.20% and EUR/PLN rose 0.72% to 4.34 amid fiscal budget concerns.
- Turkey’s USD/TRY edged up 0.23% to 48.24 while BIST 100 slipped 0.24%; focus turns to today’s Balance of Trade release.
- Regional yields declined with Poland’s 10-year at 5.51% (-4.01%) and Hungary’s at 5.26% (-6.90%), reflecting ECB-aligned easing expectations.
Yesterday's Recap
Polish equities led regional declines as iShares Poland dropped 2.20% to 43.74 and the WIG20 equivalent pressure weighed on sentiment. EUR/PLN climbed 0.72% to 4.34 while EUR/HUF rose 1.08% to 365.41, highlighting forint and zloty weakness against the euro. Turkey’s USD/TRY advanced 0.23% to 48.24 despite BIST 100’s modest 0.24% dip to 14,575.50, with the lira remaining under pressure from persistent inflation differentials.
Sovereign yields eased across the board, Poland’s 10-year falling 4.01% to 5.51% and Hungary’s 10-year dropping 6.90% to 5.26%, in line with lower euro-area yields. News flow centered on Poland’s 2027 draft budget, which tightens fiscal space ahead of elections while seeking to maintain EU fund inflows. Poland ruled out hosting nuclear weapons and asked the EU to fine Meta €250 million over scam ads.
Brent crude’s 1.67% decline to 88.20 offered some relief to energy importers across the region. Romania and Czech data were quiet, leaving attention on Warsaw’s rule-of-law negotiations with Brussels.
The Day Ahead
Turkey releases its Balance of Trade Final at 03:00 ET, with consensus pointing to a narrower deficit than the prior -10.37 bn USD print. Attention then shifts to Poland’s August 31 Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary and Turkey’s Q2 GDP and unemployment figures due the same day. Poland’s NBP interest-rate decision on September 2 will be watched for any signals on the 3.75% policy rate amid resilient domestic demand.
Turkey’s September 3 inflation prints will test CBRT credibility given the 31.75% y/y prior. Markets will also monitor any ECB follow-through that could influence CNB and MNB positioning. No major releases are scheduled for Romania or Hungary in the immediate window.
Other Economic Notes
Poland’s fiscal tightening aims to preserve access to remaining EU cohesion funds while navigating election-year spending pressures. Energy import dependence remains a shared vulnerability for Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic, with Brent’s decline providing modest relief to current-account balances. Romania’s negligible Q2 GDP revision underscores steady but unspectacular growth, keeping BNR on hold.
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