Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Turkey GDP Surges QoQ, Poland CPI Overshoots
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 14,334.10 | -1.66% |
| iShares Poland | 44.10 | +1.43% |
| EUR/PLN | 4.33 | -0.20% |
| EUR/HUF | 364.97 | +0.06% |
| EUR/CZK | 24.16 | +0.19% |
| USD/TRY | 48.27 | +0.06% |
| Brent Crude | 88.91 | -1.75% |
| Gold | 4,482.80 | +1.17% |
| Bitcoin | 78,875.99 | +1.56% |
| Poland 10Y Govt Yield | 5.51% | -4.01% |
| Hungary 10Y Govt Yield | 5.26% | -6.90% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.30 | - | 1.10 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.30 |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.60 | - | 8.10 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
Poland 10Y Yield vs Policy | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield %: 5.51 (2026-06-01) | Range: 2.63–7.82 | Trend(5pt): 2.63,6.61,5.36,5.3,5.51 | Policy Rate %: 3.74 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.23–6.79 | Trend(5pt): 0.23,6.58,5.6,5.72,3.74
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1.78 | - | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 31.75 | - | 23:00 |
- Turkey Q2 GDP expanded 1.1% QoQ and 2.3% YoY while unemployment climbed to 8.1%.
- Poland preliminary August inflation rose to 3.4% YoY, exceeding the 3.1% consensus.
- BIST 100 fell 1.66% as Polish assets advanced and regional yields declined sharply.
Yesterday's Recap
Turkey released stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures with quarter-over-quarter growth accelerating to 1.1% from 0.3% previously, though the year-over-year rate of 2.3% missed the 2.9% consensus. The unemployment rate increased to 8.1% from 7.6%, highlighting softening labor market conditions amid the modest expansion. Poland’s preliminary August inflation print came in at 3.4% year-over-year, above both the prior 3.0% reading and market expectations of 3.1%.
Equity markets diverged, with the BIST 100 declining 1.66% to 14,334.10 while the iShares Poland ETF rose 1.43% to 44.10. Government bond yields fell across the region, with Poland’s 10-year yield dropping 4.01% to 5.51% and Hungary’s 10-year yield falling 6.90% to 5.26%. EUR/PLN eased 0.20% to 4.33 while USD/TRY edged 0.06% higher to 48.27.
Broader news flow highlighted Poland’s 3.9% Q2 GDP growth driven by 8.4% investment gains and resilient net exports.
The Day Ahead
Turkey will publish August inflation data tomorrow evening, with both month-over-month and year-over-year prints due at 23:00 ET. Markets will scrutinize whether the recent GDP momentum alters expectations for the CBRT’s policy stance. No major data releases are scheduled for Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic or Romania.
Traders will monitor any follow-through from Poland’s stronger Q2 investment figures and potential comments from NBP officials. Regional FX and fixed-income markets are likely to remain sensitive to euro-area developments given tight trade linkages.
Other Economic Notes
Poland’s Q2 GDP expansion of 3.9% underscores its position as the largest CEE economy, supported by robust investment and external demand. Energy import dependence remains a shared vulnerability across the region, with higher LNG deliveries to Poland and Romania reducing exposure to Russian pipelines. EU cohesion fund disbursements to Hungary are expected in Q4 following a provisional agreement, while Poland continues to receive RRF tranches without additional conditions.
Broader CEE inflation trajectories stay anchored near targets outside Turkey, where structural pressures persist.
