Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Turkey GDP Beats, Poland CPI Climbs
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 14,229.00 | -0.73% |
| iShares Poland | 43.78 | -0.73% |
| EUR/PLN | 4.33 | -0.23% |
| EUR/HUF | 368.46 | +0.97% |
| EUR/CZK | 24.22 | +0.34% |
| USD/TRY | 48.29 | +0.05% |
| Brent Crude | 95.54 | +0.94% |
| Gold | 4,366.80 | +0.43% |
| Bitcoin | 77,652.53 | -1.14% |
| Poland 10Y Govt Yield | 5.51% | -4.01% |
| Hungary 10Y Govt Yield | 5.26% | -6.90% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.30 | - | 1.10 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.30 |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.60 | - | 8.10 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
Poland 10Y Government Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 5.51 (2026-06-01) | Range: 2.63–7.82 | Trend(5pt): 2.63,6.61,5.36,5.3,5.51
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1.78 | - | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 31.75 | - | 23:00 |
| Thursday (2026-09-03) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1.78 | - | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 31.75 | - | 23:00 |
- Turkey Q2 GDP QoQ rose 1.1% while unemployment hit 8.1%
- Poland preliminary CPI YoY climbed to 3.4% versus 3.1% consensus
- BIST 100 fell 0.73% and Poland 10Y yields dropped 4.01%
Yesterday's Recap
Turkey released stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data with quarter-over-quarter growth reaching 1.1% against a prior 0.3% reading, though the year-over-year figure printed at 2.3% below the 2.9% consensus. The unemployment rate increased to 8.1% from 7.6%. In Poland, preliminary July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, exceeding both the 3.0% prior print and 3.1% consensus.
Regional equity markets closed lower with the BIST 100 declining 0.73% and iShares Poland also off 0.73%. EUR/PLN eased 0.23% to 4.33 while EUR/HUF strengthened 0.97% to 368.46. Poland 10Y government yields fell sharply by 4.01% to 5.51% and Hungary 10Y yields dropped 6.90% to 5.26%.
Foreign investor participation on the Warsaw Stock Exchange reached a record 73% share in the first half of 2026. Investment inflows continue to underpin Poland’s expansion, with foreign holdings dominating Warsaw trading volumes.
The Day Ahead
Turkey will publish August inflation figures tonight with month-over-month and year-over-year rates scheduled for release at 23:00 ET. Markets will monitor whether the print sustains the recent disinflation trend or reaccelerates after yesterday’s GDP surprise. Poland releases August PMI at 09:00 CET, providing the first gauge of manufacturing momentum after soft industrial production.
Hungary publishes its August budget balance at 10:00 CET. Romania plans a RON 500 million 10-year bond auction while Poland auctions PLN 4 billion of 5-year paper. No major political events or EU summits are scheduled across the region.
Energy import dependence remains a shared vulnerability for Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Romania despite full summer gas-storage targets.
Other Economic Notes
EU fund disbursements stay central for Warsaw and Budapest, with the next €6.5 billion tranche for Poland expected by end-September. Romania’s euro-adoption timeline targets 2029 according to central bank guidance. Turkey’s distinct macro setting features structurally higher inflation and different geopolitical alignments compared with the four EU members.
NBP Governor Glapiński highlighted the bank’s success in weathering economic shocks during G20 central-bank discussions, reinforcing the “higher for longer” stance after Poland’s hotter CPI print. CNB and MNB remain the most attuned to ECB moves at the 2.25% deposit rate, with recent forint strength reflecting MNB’s responsiveness.
