Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Turkey GDP Misses, Polish CPI Overshoots
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 14,050.60 | -1.25% |
| iShares Poland | 44.16 | +0.87% |
| EUR/PLN | 4.33 | -0.09% |
| EUR/HUF | 367.01 | -0.28% |
| EUR/CZK | 24.19 | +0.22% |
| USD/TRY | 48.31 | +0.06% |
| Brent Crude | 94.34 | -1.35% |
| Gold | 4,475.20 | +2.49% |
| Bitcoin | 77,676.30 | +0.35% |
| Poland 10Y Govt Yield | 5.51% | -4.01% |
| Hungary 10Y Govt Yield | 5.26% | -6.90% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.30 | - | 1.10 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.30 |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.60 | - | 8.10 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
Poland Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | %: 3.1 (2026-06-01) | Range: 2.6–3.2 | Trend(5pt): 3,2.8,2.9,3.1,3.1
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1.78 | 1.93 | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 31.75 | 31.62 | 23:00 |
- Turkey Q2 GDP rose 1.1% QoQ but YoY growth missed at 2.3% while unemployment climbed to 8.1%
- Polish preliminary CPI accelerated to 3.4% YoY, exceeding the 3.1% consensus
- BIST 100 fell 1.25% and USD/TRY edged higher while Polish equities and regional yields rallied
Yesterday's Recap
Turkish statistics office reported Q2 GDP growth of 1.1% quarter-over-quarter, accelerating from 0.3% in the prior period, yet the year-over-year reading came in at 2.3% against a 2.9% consensus. Unemployment rose to 8.1% from 7.6%, adding to signs of labor-market softening. In Poland, preliminary August CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year, 0.3 percentage points above expectations and the prior 3.0% print.
Markets reacted with BIST 100 declining 1.25% to 14,050.60 while iShares Poland gained 0.87%. EUR/PLN eased 0.09% to 4.33 and EUR/HUF fell 0.28% to 367.01. Poland’s 10-year yield dropped 4.01% to 5.51% and Hungary’s 10-year yield fell 6.90% to 5.26%.
Brent crude slipped 1.35% to 94.34 amid softer energy demand signals. Gold advanced 2.49% to 4,475.20 as investors sought hedges, while Bitcoin rose 0.35% to 77,676.30. The forint showed further weakness in follow-through trading, testing levels near 368 versus the euro after the session close.
The Day Ahead
Turkey will release August inflation figures tonight, with month-over-month expected at 1.93% and year-over-year at 31.62%. Analysts will watch for any further deviation from the consensus that could alter CBRT policy expectations. No major data releases are scheduled for Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary or Romania.
Hungary plans a 10-year bond auction that could test recent yield compression. Regional FX desks will monitor any follow-through on forint moves after Wednesday’s session. ECB speakers and euro-area PMI revisions may provide indirect guidance for CNB and MNB positioning.
Poland opens its September funding cycle for research, digitalisation and business innovation projects, which could support near-term growth momentum if uptake proves strong.
Other Economic Notes
EU fund disbursements for Hungary remain stalled on rule-of-law benchmarks, limiting fiscal space and keeping forint volatility elevated. Poland continues to meet milestones, positioning it for the next tranche of roughly €6 billion by October. Romania’s euro-adoption path has slipped toward 2029 as inflation differentials persist.
<i>↓ p.2</i>
