Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
NBP Holds Amid Peak Inflation, BIST Rallies
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 14,405.30 | +1.79% |
| iShares Poland | 45.76 | +1.42% |
| EUR/PLN | 4.31 | +0.09% |
| EUR/HUF | 362.88 | +0.47% |
| EUR/CZK | 24.19 | +0.07% |
| USD/TRY | 48.47 | +0.05% |
| Brent Crude | 98.87 | +0.97% |
| Gold | 4,442.80 | +1.11% |
| Bitcoin | 78,943.18 | -0.22% |
| Poland 10Y Govt Yield | 5.51% | -4.01% |
| Hungary 10Y Govt Yield | 5.26% | -6.90% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Poland 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 5.51 (2026-06-01) | Range: 2.63–7.82 | Trend(5pt): 2.63,6.61,5.36,5.3,5.51
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 05:00 |
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | -1.40 | - | 23:00 |
| TCMB Interest Rate Decision | 37 | 37 | 03:00 |
- NBP set to hold rates at 3.75% as Polish inflation hits 14-month high near upper tolerance band.
- BIST 100 gains 1.79% while Poland and Hungary 10-year yields fall sharply on risk-on flows.
- CBRT expected to hold at 37% ahead of Turkey industrial production data release.
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets in Emerging Europe advanced solidly with the BIST 100 rising 1.79% to 14,405.30 and iShares Poland climbing 1.42% to 45.76. Sovereign yields tightened markedly as Poland’s 10-year yield dropped 4.01% to 5.51% and Hungary’s 10-year yield fell 6.90% to 5.26%. Currency moves remained contained with EUR/PLN edging 0.09% higher to 4.31 and USD/TRY adding 0.05% to 48.47.
No macro releases occurred on 8 September across the five economies. Polish inflation reached a 14-month high driven by fuel prices and now sits near the top of the NBP tolerance range, reinforcing expectations for unchanged policy. Turkish defense firm Aselsan secured a new export contract with Poland, highlighting expanding bilateral security ties.
Hungary expelled ten Russian diplomats amid espionage concerns, marking a further shift in Budapest’s foreign policy stance. Prime Minister Donald Tusk cautioned that only “idiots or traitors” would welcome Germany’s far-right gains, underscoring security risks tied to Berlin’s re-armament.
The Day Ahead
Poland’s NBP will announce its interest rate decision at 05:00 ET with consensus pointing to a hold at 3.75%. Turkey releases industrial production year-over-year data at 23:00 ET, following the prior reading of -1.4%. The CBRT is scheduled to deliver its rate decision at 03:00 ET on 10 September with markets expecting no change from 37%.
No sovereign bond auctions or EU-level summits are scheduled for the region. Attention will center on whether Polish inflation data and Turkish industrial momentum alter near-term policy outlooks. Regional FX and equity markets are likely to react primarily to the two central bank announcements.
Energy import dependence continues to shape policy across Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Romania despite diversification progress.
Other Economic Notes
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that only “idiots or traitors” would welcome the rise of Germany’s far-right, underscoring security concerns tied to Berlin’s re-armament drive. Hungary’s MNB is preparing a fundamental review of its inflation target framework, potentially aligning it closer to euro-area norms ahead of any future convergence steps. ↓ p.2
