Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Soft Data Trims ECB Cut Odds
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,269.97 | -0.23% |
| DAX | 25,067.09 | -0.20% |
| CAC 40 | 8,338.97 | +0.15% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.22% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.85 | -0.03% |
| EUR/JPY | 184.73 | -0.48% |
| Gold | 4,061.30 | -1.04% |
| Brent Crude | 79.24 | +4.25% |
| Bitcoin | 62,589.80 | -1.90% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 3.05% | +1.52% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
German 10Y Bund Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 3.046 (2026-05-01) | Range: -0.5386–3.046 | Trend(6pt): -0.5386,2.187,2.102,2.405,3.001,3.046
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale Prices Month-over-Month | -0.60 | 0.20 | 22:00 |
| Wholesale Prices Year-over-Year | 5.90 | - | 22:00 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 3.90 | - | 20:30 |
| Trade Balance | 4,293m | 4,200m | 01:00 |
- German wholesale prices due tonight with modest rebound expected
- Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX close lower while CAC edges higher on banks
- German 10-year Bund yield rises 1.52% to 3.05% as easing bets fade
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets closed mixed on 12 July with Euro Stoxx 50 falling 0.23% to 6,269.97 and DAX declining 0.20% to 25,067.09 while CAC 40 gained 0.15% to 8,338.97. EUR/USD dropped 0.22% to 1.14 and EUR/JPY fell 0.48% to 184.73 amid broad dollar strength. Brent crude jumped 4.25% to 79.24 on supply concerns while gold slipped 1.04% to 4,061.30.
The German 10-year Bund yield climbed 1.52% to 3.05% as markets scaled back near-term ECB easing. French June HICP held at 2.0% on the EU-harmonized measure in line with expectations while Bank of France upgraded Q2 GDP to +0.2%. No Eurozone data prints occurred on the day leaving market moves driven by positioning ahead of German wholesale prices.
The Day Ahead
Attention centers on German wholesale prices month-over-month due at 22:00 ET with consensus at +0.2% after June’s -0.6% print. The year-over-year measure is also scheduled though no consensus is published. Netherlands headline unemployment for June follows at 20:30 ET.
Italy releases its June trade balance at 01:00 ET on 16 July with consensus at €4.2 bn. These releases will update cost and external sector trends ahead of next week’s flash CPI. No ECB speakers or Governing Council minutes are scheduled.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone CPI stood at 2.80% year-over-year in June while unemployment held at 6.20% in May confirming a gradual disinflation path. Bank of France support for the digital euro initiative highlights ongoing work on payment infrastructure that could affect monetary transmission. EU finance ministers agreed to accelerate €45 bn of REPowerEU disbursements providing fiscal support to energy transition projects without altering 2026 deficit trajectories.
German wholesale price data tonight will clarify whether cost pressures are re-emerging after recent oil volatility. Corporate adaptation to heatwaves noted in French GDP revisions shows limited supply-side disruption so far.
Global Macro News
US, UK and twelve other nations reaffirmed the 2016 South China Sea ruling adding geopolitical tension that lifted Brent. Cooling Eurozone inflation readings alongside Japanese pension reforms supported the yen and weighed on EUR/JPY. <i>↓ p.2</i>
