Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
German Factory Orders Surge 3.1% MoM
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,476.98 | -0.15% |
| DAX | 26,126.30 | -0.29% |
| CAC 40 | 8,669.30 | +0.03% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.15% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | +0.05% |
| EUR/JPY | 182.19 | +0.18% |
| Gold | 4,325.90 | +1.89% |
| Brent Crude | 79.40 | -0.06% |
| Bitcoin | 64,688.28 | +0.99% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.97% | -2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 1.20 | -0.50 | -1.10 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 2.10 | - | -0.20 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 49.70 | 50 | 50.20 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 52.20 | 52.30 | 51.30 |
| Unemployment Level Change | -28,700 | -20,300 | 19,500 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.10 | -0.10 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Index | 54.20 | 54.90 | 58.30 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Index | 50.20 | - | 52.50 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 1.90 | 0.30 | 3.10 |
German 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 2.97 (2026-06-01) | Range: -0.3843–3.046 | Trend(6pt): -0.3627,2.066,2.175,2.741,3.046,2.97
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.30 | 0.30 | 00:00 |
| Unemployment Rate | 8.10 | 8.20 | 21:30 |
| Trade Balance | 19,100m | 17,400m | 22:00 |
| Exports Month-over-Month | 0.90 | - | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.10 | 22:00 |
| Trade Balance | -6,900m | -6,500m | 22:45 |
- German factory orders jumped 3.1% m/m, beating forecasts and signalling industrial resilience.
- Spanish services PMI surged to 58.3 while Italian manufacturing PMI fell to 51.3, highlighting uneven growth.
- Euro Stoxx 50 edged down 0.15% as German 10-year Bund yields dropped 2.51% to 2.97%.
Yesterday's Recap
German retail sales contracted 1.1% m/m in July, worse than the -0.5% consensus, while year-over-year sales fell 0.2%. Spanish manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2, topping the 50.0 expected, but Italian manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.3 from 52.2. Spanish unemployment increased by 19,500 in July against expectations of a decline.
French industrial production rose 0.1% m/m, below the 0.3% consensus. Spanish services PMI climbed sharply to 58.3 from 54.2, and Italian services PMI advanced to 52.5. German factory orders posted a strong 3.1% m/m gain versus the 0.3% forecast.
Equity markets closed mixed with the DAX down 0.29% and CAC 40 up 0.03%, while EUR/USD gained 0.15% to 1.16 and gold rose 1.89% to 4,325.90. The data mix showed resilient German industrial demand offsetting softer consumption and mixed services readings across the periphery.
The Day Ahead
Italian industrial production for June is due at midnight, followed by the French unemployment rate at 21:30 ET. Germany releases its June trade balance, exports and industrial production at 22:00 ET. The German trade balance print carries high market impact and could influence Bund yields and EUR crosses if it deviates from the 17.4 billion euro consensus.
No ECB speeches are scheduled. Traders will watch for signs of sustained German industrial momentum against softening French labour data. Markets will also monitor any revisions to export figures that could alter the near-term growth outlook for the bloc’s largest economy.
Other Economic Notes
Extreme drought has lowered Rhine and Danube water levels, disrupting freight and energy supply chains across Germany, France and the Netherlands. EU finance ministers discussed easing fiscal rules to accommodate higher defence spending, with Germany indicating openness. Eurozone CPI stood at 2.90% y/y in July and unemployment at 6.30% in June, keeping the ECB deposit rate at 2.25%.
These figures underscore persistent price pressures amid slowing labour-market momentum. Climate-related supply risks add to downside growth concerns for the second half of 2026. <i>↓ p.2</i>
