Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Inflation Steady at 2.9% as Bunds Ease
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,533.99 | -0.26% |
| DAX | 26,346.29 | -0.17% |
| CAC 40 | 8,674.94 | -0.46% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.16% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.85 | -0.06% |
| EUR/JPY | 183.62 | -0.13% |
| Gold | 4,433.30 | +0.55% |
| Brent Crude | 88.91 | -0.08% |
| Bitcoin | 63,759.87 | +0.33% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.97% | -2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 4,946m | 4,740m | 4,232m |
German 10Y Bund Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 2.97 (2026-06-01) | Range: -0.3843–3.046 | Trend(6pt): -0.3627,2.066,2.175,2.741,3.046,2.97
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale Prices Month-over-Month | -0.70 | 0.40 | 22:00 |
| Wholesale Prices Year-over-Year | 4.90 | - | 22:00 |
| Friday (2026-08-14) | |||
| Wholesale Prices Month-over-Month | -0.70 | 0.40 | 22:00 |
| Wholesale Prices Year-over-Year | 4.90 | - | 22:00 |
- Eurozone CPI held at 2.9% YoY in July, keeping the ECB on alert ahead of September.
- Italian trade surplus narrowed to €4.23 billion, below consensus, while German inflation confirmed at 2.8%.
- Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.26% and German 10Y Bund yields slipped 2.51% to 2.97%.
Yesterday's Recap
Italian trade balance data showed a surplus of €4.23 billion, missing the €4.74 billion consensus and marking the weakest print in recent months. German inflation was confirmed at 2.8% for July, aligning with preliminary figures and reflecting persistent services pressures. Equity markets closed lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 declining 0.26% to 6,533.99, the DAX easing 0.17% to 26,346.29 and the CAC 40 dropping 0.46% to 8,674.94.
The euro weakened modestly, with EUR/USD falling 0.16% to 1.15 and EUR/JPY slipping 0.13% to 183.62. German 10Y Bund yields declined 2.51% to 2.97%, while gold rose 0.55% amid safe-haven flows. Unemployment across the euro area stood at 6.3% as of June, providing a stable labor backdrop.
Overall risk sentiment remained cautious ahead of fresh inflation prints from Italy and the United States.
The Day Ahead
German wholesale price data for July will be released later today, with month-over-month expected to rebound to 0.4% from -0.7% and year-over-year figures due after the prior 4.9% reading. Markets will also monitor any follow-up comments from ECB officials on the 2.9% euro-area inflation print. Attention remains on potential energy price volatility that could influence September policy deliberations.
No major speeches from Governing Council members are scheduled, leaving focus on the wholesale price outcome and its implications for pipeline pressures. Investors will assess whether the data supports the current 2.25% deposit rate path.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone inflation at 2.9% continues to reflect energy and services components that keep the ECB vigilant despite the 2.25% deposit rate. The 6.3% unemployment rate signals a resilient labor market that may limit the scope for aggressive easing. German wholesale prices will offer an early signal on whether cost pressures are reaccelerating after recent disinflation progress.
Broader fiscal support in Germany and France is helping offset weaker external demand, while Italian and Spanish growth remains supported by domestic consumption. Rhine shipping disruptions add minor supply-chain risks but have not yet fed into core price measures.
