Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
German Retail Sales Slump, Italian CPI Climbs
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,368.98 | -0.80% |
| DAX | 25,970.11 | -1.10% |
| CAC 40 | 8,301.85 | -0.39% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.29% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | +0.02% |
| EUR/JPY | 185.05 | -0.29% |
| Gold | 4,373.10 | +0.58% |
| Brent Crude | 95.40 | +0.79% |
| Bitcoin | 77,605.40 | -1.20% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.97% | -2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.80 | 3 | 2.90 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.80 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3.20 | - | 3.30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 0.60 | - | -2.50 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.20 | 50.10 | 49.50 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 51.30 | 51.50 | 49.60 |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.80 | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.90 | - | 3.30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.50 |
German 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield %: 2.97 (2026-06-01) | Range: -0.3843–3.046 | Trend(5pt): -0.2043,2.085,2.332,2.51,2.97
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Level Change | 19,500 | 21,500 | 23:00 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Index | 58.30 | 59 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Index | 52.50 | - | 23:45 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 3.10 | 0.50 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.20 | 00:00 |
- German August retail sales fell sharply while preliminary CPI rose to 2.9% y/y, exceeding consensus.
- Italian August CPI accelerated to 3.3% y/y and manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.6.
- Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.80% and German 10Y Bund yields fell 2.51% as markets priced slower ECB easing.
Yesterday's Recap
German preliminary August inflation rose 2.9% y/y, slightly below the 3.0% consensus but above the prior 2.8%, while the month-over-month rate printed at 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. Netherlands inflation reached 3.3% y/y. German retail sales contracted 3.4% m/m against a 0.4% consensus gain, with the annual figure at -2.5%.
Spanish manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.2, and Italian manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.6 from 51.3. Italian unemployment held steady at 5.8% while Italian CPI jumped to 3.3% y/y. Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.80% at 6,368.98, DAX fell 1.10%, and CAC 40 declined 0.39%.
EUR/USD slipped 0.29% to 1.16 while the German 10Y Bund yield eased to 2.97%. The eurozone CPI at 3.30% and unemployment at 6.30% underscore persistent price pressures amid stable labor conditions.
The Day Ahead
Spain will release unemployment level change and S&P Global services PMI, with markets expecting a services reading near 59.0. Italy follows with its services PMI print after yesterday’s weak manufacturing outcome. Germany reports factory orders, where consensus points to a 0.5% m/m rise following the prior 3.1% gain.
Italy also publishes retail sales data. These releases will shape expectations ahead of the next ECB policy meeting, with services strength potentially supporting the euro and pressuring Bund yields higher. No ECB speakers are scheduled.
The ECB deposit rate stands at 2.25%, leaving room for data to influence any future adjustments.
Other Economic Notes
Germany is preparing measures to address perceived unfair Chinese trade practices within weeks, adding to euro-area external risks. France and Germany are pushing for faster EU foreign-policy decisions to bypass repeated blocks by Hungary. EU plans to restructure its diplomatic service are accelerating under pressure for budget savings.
These developments coincide with elevated eurozone CPI at 3.30% and the ECB deposit rate at 2.25%, keeping policy focus on inflation persistence. <i>↓ p.2</i>
