Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
German Retail Sales Slump as CPI Climbs
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,362.15 | -0.11% |
| DAX | 25,830.56 | -0.54% |
| CAC 40 | 8,280.63 | -0.26% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.07% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | +0.25% |
| EUR/JPY | 185.68 | +0.05% |
| Gold | 4,479.20 | +2.59% |
| Brent Crude | 94.35 | -1.34% |
| Bitcoin | 77,682.54 | +0.36% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.97% | -2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.80 | 3 | 2.90 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.80 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3.20 | - | 3.30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 0.60 | - | -2.50 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.20 | 50.10 | 49.50 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 51.30 | 51.50 | 49.60 |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.80 | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.90 | - | 3.30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.50 |
German 10Y Government Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 2.97 (2026-06-01) | Range: -0.3843–3.046 | Trend(5pt): -0.2043,2.085,2.332,2.51,2.97
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Services PMI Index | 58.30 | 59 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Index | 52.50 | - | 23:45 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 3.10 | 0.50 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.20 | 00:00 |
- German August CPI rose 2.9% y/y while retail sales fell 3.4% m/m.
- Italian inflation jumped to 3.3% y/y; Spain and Italy manufacturing PMIs contracted.
- Euro Stoxx 50 slipped 0.11%; German 10-year yields fell to 2.97%.
Yesterday's Recap
German preliminary CPI came in at 2.9% y/y, above the 2.8% prior but below 3.0% consensus, while the month-over-month rate printed 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. German retail sales collapsed 3.4% m/m against a 0.4% consensus gain, with the year-over-year reading at -2.5%. Dutch CPI edged up to 3.3% y/y.
Spanish manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.2, and Italian manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.6 from 51.3. Italian unemployment held at 5.8%, yet Italian CPI accelerated to 3.3% y/y. Spanish unemployment rose by 44,419 persons.
Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.11% at 6,362.15, DAX fell 0.54%, and CAC 40 declined 0.26%. EUR/USD rose 0.07% to 1.16 while German 10-year Bund yields dropped 2.51% to 2.97%. Eurozone CPI reached the verified 3.30% level.
The Day Ahead
Spain’s services PMI is due at 23:15 ET, followed by Italy’s services PMI at 23:45 ET. German factory orders for July are scheduled for 22:00 ET tomorrow, with consensus at 0.5% m/m after a 3.1% prior gain. Italian retail sales are expected at 00:00 ET on 4 September.
Markets will watch whether services readings offset yesterday’s manufacturing weakness. Any upside surprise in German orders could limit further Bund yield declines. The data flow arrives against a backdrop of elevated Eurozone inflation at the verified 3.30% rate.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone inflation reached the verified 3.30% level in August, the highest in three years, driven by Middle East energy costs. France’s 10-year borrowing costs hit 4.27%, the highest since 2008, reflecting fiscal concerns. EU finance ministers are accelerating plans to restructure the diplomatic service for budget savings.
Broader bond-market selloffs have lifted yields across Germany, the UK and Japan. These pressures coincide with ongoing EU-NATO coordination on Russia-related security risks. The verified ECB Deposit Rate remains at 2.25%.
Global Macro News
Global bond yields rose further on persistent inflation worries and higher oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. Apollo’s Torsten Slok attributed US yield increases mainly to tariffs and geopolitical risks rather than fiscal deficits. <i>↓ p.2</i>
