Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
German IP Slump Offsets Trade Surplus
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,413.17 | +0.14% |
| DAX | 26,001.80 | -0.02% |
| CAC 40 | 8,317.98 | +0.14% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.10% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | +0.02% |
| EUR/JPY | 178.90 | -1.38% |
| Gold | 4,439.90 | +1.05% |
| Brent Crude | 98.89 | +0.99% |
| Bitcoin | 78,930.99 | -0.23% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.97% | -2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.10 | -1.10 |
| Trade Balance | 15,400m | 16,000m | 21,300m |
| Exports Month-over-Month | 0.90 | - | -0.80 |
| Trade Balance | -5,800m | -6,000m | -6,700m |
German 10Y Government Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 2.97 (2026-06-01) | Range: -0.3843–3.046 | Trend(5pt): -0.2043,2.085,2.332,2.51,2.97
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.30 | 22:45 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -1 | 0.30 | 00:00 |
| Thursday (2026-09-10) | |||
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -1 | 0.30 | 00:00 |
- German industrial production fell 1.1% MoM versus 0.1% consensus.
- Trade surplus widened to €21.3bn while French deficit reached -€6.7bn.
- Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.14% as German 10-year yields fell to 2.97%.
Yesterday's Recap
German industrial production contracted 1.1% month-over-month on 6 September, missing the 0.1% consensus and signalling renewed weakness in factory output. German exports declined 0.8% in the same period while the trade balance printed a larger €21.3bn surplus against a €16bn expectation. French trade balance widened to -€6.7bn versus a -€6bn consensus, extending the external drag.
Equity markets finished mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,413.17 (+0.14%) and the CAC 40 at 8,317.98 (+0.14%), while the DAX closed at 26,001.80 (-0.02%). EUR/USD held at 1.16 (+0.10%) and the German 10-year Bund yield eased 2.51% to 2.97%. The data releases reinforced evidence of manufacturing softness concentrated in Germany without shifting broader rate expectations.
No major policy speeches altered the picture overnight.
The Day Ahead
France industrial production is scheduled for release with a 0.3% consensus, following the soft German print. Italy industrial production is also due, expected at 0.3% after a prior -1% reading. Both medium-impact figures will test whether the German weakness is spreading across the bloc.
No ECB speeches or minutes are listed. Markets will parse the numbers for confirmation of the manufacturing slowdown already signalled by yesterday’s releases. Focus remains on whether external trade and output trends support the current policy stance amid resilient labour conditions.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone CPI stood at 3.30% YoY in August while unemployment held at 6.40% in July, keeping the labour market resilient. Restrictive ECB policy continues to weigh on activity even as yields remain near multi-year highs ahead of the next decision. Member states show divergence, with German data driving the downside and French external balances adding pressure.
Broader fiscal debates in France highlight spending constraints that could limit support for growth. The combination of soft industrial readings and steady inflation leaves the growth-inflation mix largely unchanged.
