Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Spain CPI Overshoots, French Inflation Due
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,320.26 | +0.30% |
| DAX | 25,476.66 | +0.40% |
| CAC 40 | 8,035.87 | -0.53% |
| EUR/USD | 1.13 | -0.33% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | -0.26% |
| EUR/JPY | 178.06 | -0.48% |
| Gold | 4,210.80 | +0.74% |
| Brent Crude | 96.31 | -6.12% |
| Bitcoin | 83,289.09 | -0.26% |
| German 2Y Bund | 3.28% | -2 bp |
| German 10Y Bund | 3.69% | +6 bp |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.70 | - | 0.30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 4.30 | 4.70 | 4.90 |
| Unemployment Benefit Claims | 21,500 | - | -61,300 |
| Business Confidence Index | -3.90 | - | - |
German 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 3.18 (2026-08-01) | Range: -0.3843–3.18 | Trend(6pt): -0.2043,2.085,2.332,2.51,2.964,3.18
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -3.40 | 1.40 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | -2.50 | - | 22:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.40 | 2.80 | 22:45 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.70 | -0.50 | 22:45 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.40 | 6.40 | 23:55 |
| Unemployed Persons Level | 3.0m | - | 23:55 |
| Unemployment Level Change | 4,000 | 2,000 | 23:55 |
| Business Confidence Index | 89.90 | - | 00:00 |
| Consumer Confidence Index | 94.50 | - | 00:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3.30 | - | 01:00 |
- Spanish September inflation beat expectations with YoY at 4.9% versus 4.7% consensus, adding mild upside risk to Eurozone HICP.
- Equity markets closed mixed while Brent crude fell 6.12% and German 10-year yields rose 6 bp to 3.69%.
- Focus shifts to French and Italian preliminary inflation prints plus German retail sales and unemployment data today.
Yesterday's Recap
Spain’s preliminary September inflation surprised higher, with the month-over-month rate at 0.3% after 0.7% previously and the year-over-year rate reaching 4.9% against a 4.7% consensus and 4.3% prior. French unemployment benefit claims dropped sharply to -61,300 from +21,500. Spanish business confidence data went unreported.
Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 0.30% to 6,320.26 while the DAX gained 0.40% to 25,476.66; the CAC 40 declined 0.53% to 8,035.87. EUR/USD fell 0.33% to 1.13, EUR/GBP slipped 0.26% to 0.86 and EUR/JPY eased 0.48% to 178.06. German 2-year Bund yields declined 2 bp to 3.28% and 10-year yields climbed 6 bp to 3.69%.
Markets showed limited immediate reaction to the Spanish print beyond modest euro softening.
The Day Ahead
High-impact releases include French preliminary inflation with year-over-year consensus at 2.8% and month-over-month at -0.5%, alongside German retail sales month-over-month expected at +1.4%. German headline unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 6.4% with unemployed persons change at +2,000. Italian preliminary inflation and business and consumer confidence indices will also print.
S&P Global manufacturing PMIs for Spain and Italy complete the calendar. These figures will refine views on domestic demand and price pressures ahead of the next ECB policy meeting.
Other Economic Notes
Germany and five other capitals issued an EU budget ultimatum demanding Brussels cut hundreds of billions in planned spending. German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche discussed trade with China’s commerce minister amid reports that Berlin and Paris seek new tools to restrict Chinese market access. France plans record €340 billion bond issuance next year to refinance Covid-era debt.
The French Cour des comptes president warned that political inaction risks further debt slippage. These fiscal and trade developments heighten policy uncertainty without immediate market repricing.
