Over the last 20 sessions the 10y is +51 bp; the stack attributes most of it to Fiscal and Monetary policy. The session’s +7 bp was mostly Fiscal (+7).
Chart 1 · 10-year stacked contributions · Over the last 20 sessions the 10y is +51 bp; the stack attributes most of it to Fiscal and Monetary policy.Chart 1 · 10-year stacked contributions | 2026-08-27→2026-09-24 | 10y 4.67%→5.18% | Source: 20-session in-sample OLSFiscal and Residuals driving the last 2 days · The session’s +7 bp was mostly Fiscal (+7).Fiscal and Residuals driving the last 2 days | Last 2026-09-24: +7 bp (Fiscal risk +7) | 1 cube = 1 bp
In-sample OLS identity: starting fitted + layers + residual equal the 10-year. Residual is unexplained, not Fed credibility. Not identified shock shares.
UST − Bund · US 10Y minus German 10Y. Missing either leg omits the series.UST − Bund | Latest: 1.57pp (2026-08-01) | Range: 1.058pp–2.349pp | Trend(6pt): 1.179,2.168,1.51,1.667,1.506,1.57G7 2s10s · 10Y−2Y. Inverted curves print below the zero line.G7 2s10s | US: 0.33pp, UK: 0.62pp, DE: 0.29pp, JP: 1.22pp, CA: 0.58pp, AU: 0.35pp, NZ: 1.11pp, CH: 0.27pp | Range: 0.27pp–1.22ppG7 10YG7 10Y | Latest (2026-09-23): US 5.11%; DE 3.18%; UK 4.989%; JP 2.94% | Range: 0.32%–5.11%Steepener z · Cross-sectional z of 10Y−2Y. Higher = long steepener vs peers.Steepener z | JP: 2.062σ, UK: 0.093σ, CA: 0.093σ, AU: -0.629σ, DE: -0.695σ, US: -0.924σ | Range: -0.924σ–2.062σ
10Y spread
Level
UST − Bund 10Y
1.660pp
Gilt − Bund 10Y
1.790pp
UST − JGB 10Y
2.030pp
10Y Gilt − UST
0.250pp
BTP − Bund 10Y
0.386pp
OAT − Bund 10Y
0.400pp
Levels in percentage points. A spread is omitted when either leg is missing — never filled with zero. Session changes are not shown: the history behind the chart is a multi-year downsample, not a daily series.
Option-adjusted spreads in basis points, change versus the previous print. z is against the series’ own three-year history. A wider spread is risk-off.
Rates against credit
Level
Legs
On
CCC − BB decompression
934bp
CCC 1,093bp vs BB 159bp
23 Sep
BB − BBB crossover
64bp
BB 159bp vs BBB 95bp
23 Sep
HY OAS against 2s10s
pair
HY OAS 273bp vs 2s10s 26bp
23 Sep
IG yield over UST 10Y
72bp
IG yield 583bp vs UST 10Y 511bp
23 Sep
Each signal is computed on the newest date both legs printed; neither leg is carried forward. A pair is shown as two legs because the difference between them is not a traded number.
Different sessions. Credit prints through 24 Sep 2026; the Treasury tape is 23 Sep 2026, 1 day behind. The two are not merged.
Treasury positioning · Leveraged-money 52-week z. Net long a Treasury future is long duration.Treasury positioning | ZT: 2.042σ, ZF: 1.464σ, ZN: 1.568σ, TN: -0.7363σ, UB: 2.021σ, FF: 0.5985σ, SR3: -1.571σ | Range: -1.571σ–2.042σ
Contract
Name
Net
z 52w
Δz
Side
Week
ZT
2Y note
-1,294,575
+2.04σ
-0.01
long
covered its long
ZF
5Y note
-1,986,928
+1.46σ
+0.15
long
extended its long
ZN
10Y note
-1,868,126
+1.57σ
+0.44
long
extended its long
TN
Ultra 10Y
-399,246
-0.74σ
+0.36
short
covered its short
UB
Ultra bond
-211,735
+2.02σ
+1.09
long
extended its long
FF
Fed funds
173,421
+0.60σ
+1.05
long
extended its long
SR3
3M SOFR
-2,774,148
-1.57σ
+0.03
short
covered its short
CFTC TFF leveraged money, report 15 Sep 2026. Net long a Treasury future is long duration. Side and week are derived from the signed z and Δz — they are not typed.
Higher composite = bullish duration versus G7 peers. A country with too few live factors is omitted, not scored as zero.
Omitted from this issue
curve_IT_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable
curve_FR_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable
cot_ZB — no CFTC observations for this contract
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US strip, G7 curve RV, Treasury positioning and the duration scorecard. On sessions where the 10-year moves 5 bp or more, the 20-session driver stack and 1 bp cubes. Free.