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G7 rates · 01 Oct 2026
Built 05 Oct 17:56 UTC · US Treasury close 01 Oct
strip close01 OctCOT T+3 report29 Sepcredit close02 Octfactors4/6 live

US 10Y rose +4bp to 5.28%, bearish duration on the session. The 2s10s flattened -1bp to 45bp. ZN leveraged money covered its long at +0.4σ.

  • US 10Y rose +4bp to 5.28% — bearish duration.
  • US 2s10s flattened -1bp at 45bp.
  • ZN leveraged money covered its long at +0.4σ.

The US striplive strip →

The 10Y rose — bearish duration for the session.

US stripYield1dAs of
US 2Y4.830%+5.0bp02 Oct
US 5Y5.010%-8.0bp01 Oct
US 10Y5.280%+4.0bp02 Oct
US 30Y5.610%-3.0bp01 Oct
SOFR3.870%-3.0bp01 Oct
2s10s0.450%-1.0bp02 Oct
10s30s0.370%+2.0bp01 Oct
Change versus the previous print, in basis points. 2s10s is US10 − US2, computed once on the strip — not recomputed here.

Curve relative valuelive curve RV →

US 2s10s flattened -1bp.

10Y spreadLevel
UST − Bund 10Y1.810pp
Gilt − Bund 10Y1.950pp
UST − JGB 10Y2.130pp
10Y Gilt − UST0.140pp
BTP − Bund 10Y0.536pp
OAT − Bund 10Y0.550pp
Levels in percentage points. A spread is omitted when either leg is missing — never filled with zero. Session changes are not shown: the history behind the chart is a multi-year downsample, not a daily series.

Creditlive credit →

US HY OAS narrowed -14bp.

CreditLevel1d1mz 3yAs of
US IG OAS85bp-1bp+4bp-0.23σ02 Oct
US HY OAS310bp-14bp+44bp+0.13σ02 Oct
CCC − BB decompression1,011bp———02 Oct
NFCI (weekly)-0.548+0.005-0.050-0.32σ25 Sep
Option-adjusted spreads in basis points, change versus the previous print. z is against the series’ own three-year history. A wider spread is risk-off.
Rates against creditLevelLegsOn
CCC − BB decompression1,011bpCCC 1,202bp vs BB 191bp02 Oct
BB − BBB crossover87bpBB 191bp vs BBB 104bp02 Oct
HY OAS against 2s10spairHY OAS 310bp vs 2s10s 45bp02 Oct
IG yield over UST 10Y75bpIG yield 599bp vs UST 10Y 524bp01 Oct
Each signal is computed on the newest date both legs printed; neither leg is carried forward. A pair is shown as two legs because the difference between them is not a traded number.
Different sessions. Credit prints through 02 Oct 2026; the Treasury tape is 01 Oct 2026, 1 day behind. The two are not merged.

Treasury positioningTreasury positioning →

ZN is long duration; it covered its long.

ContractNameNetz 52wΔzSideWeek
ZT2Y note-1,165,980+2.19σ+0.56longextended its long
ZF5Y note-1,985,787+1.33σ-0.24longcovered its long
ZN10Y note-2,036,432+0.45σ-0.69longcovered its long
TNUltra 10Y-328,471+0.21σ+0.89longextended its long
ZBBond-251,395+1.16σ-1.38longcovered its long
UBUltra bond-808,870-0.18σ+0.14shortcovered its short
FFFed funds80,253+0.03σ-0.22longcovered its long
SR33M SOFR-2,410,343-1.07σ+0.04shortcovered its short
CFTC TFF leveraged money, report 29 Sep 2026. Net long a Treasury future is long duration. Side and week are derived from the signed z and Δz — they are not typed.

Duration scorecardduration scorecard →

UK leads the duration composite at +1.26σ.

MarketCompositeFactors
UK+1.264
JP+1.044
AU+0.464
CA-0.314
US-1.176
DE-1.285
Higher composite = bullish duration versus G7 peers. A country with too few live factors is omitted, not scored as zero.
Omitted from this issue
  • curve_IT_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable
  • curve_FR_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable

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US strip, G7 curve RV, Treasury positioning and the duration scorecard. On sessions where the 10-year moves 5 bp or more, the 20-session driver stack and 1 bp cubes. Free.

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