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FI Daily

G7 rates · 15 Oct 2026
Built 19 Oct 12:25 UTC · US Treasury close 15 Oct
strip close15 OctCOT T+3 report13 Octcredit close15 Octfactors4/6 live

US 10Y fell -1bp to 5.09%, bullish duration on the session. The 2s10s steepened +2bp to 35bp. ZN leveraged money extended its short at -0.7σ.

  • US 10Y fell -1bp to 5.09% — bullish duration.
  • US 2s10s steepened +2bp at 35bp.
  • ZN leveraged money extended its short at -0.7σ.

The US striplive strip →

The 10Y fell — bullish duration for the session.

US stripYield1dAs of
US 2Y4.740%-3.0bp16 Oct
US 5Y4.910%-9.0bp15 Oct
US 10Y5.090%-1.0bp16 Oct
US 30Y5.430%-9.0bp15 Oct
SOFR3.890%+1.0bp15 Oct
2s10s0.350%+2.0bp16 Oct
10s30s0.330%+0.0bp15 Oct
Change versus the previous print, in basis points. 2s10s is US10 − US2, computed once on the strip — not recomputed here.

Curve relative valuelive curve RV →

US 2s10s steepened +2bp.

10Y spreadLevel
UST − Bund 10Y1.630pp
Gilt − Bund 10Y1.880pp
UST − JGB 10Y2.170pp
10Y Gilt − UST0.280pp
BTP − Bund 10Y0.576pp
OAT − Bund 10Y1.067pp
Levels in percentage points. A spread is omitted when either leg is missing — never filled with zero. Session changes are not shown: the history behind the chart is a multi-year downsample, not a daily series.

Creditlive credit →

US HY OAS narrowed -2bp.

CreditLevel1d1mz 3yAs of
US IG OAS84bp+0bp+4bp-0.30σ15 Oct
US HY OAS323bp-2bp+47bp+0.57σ15 Oct
CCC − BB decompression1,081bp———15 Oct
NFCI (weekly)-0.499+0.008+0.008-0.07σ09 Oct
Option-adjusted spreads in basis points, change versus the previous print. z is against the series’ own three-year history. A wider spread is risk-off.
Rates against creditLevelLegsOn
CCC − BB decompression1,081bpCCC 1,278bp vs BB 197bp15 Oct
BB − BBB crossover92bpBB 197bp vs BBB 105bp15 Oct
HY OAS against 2s10spairHY OAS 323bp vs 2s10s 33bp15 Oct
IG yield over UST 10Y76bpIG yield 586bp vs UST 10Y 510bp15 Oct
Each signal is computed on the newest date both legs printed; neither leg is carried forward. A pair is shown as two legs because the difference between them is not a traded number.

Treasury positioningTreasury positioning →

ZN is short duration; it extended its short.

ContractNameNetz 52wΔzSideWeek
ZT2Y note-1,367,408+1.42σ-0.32longcovered its long
ZF5Y note-2,104,391+1.03σ+0.04longextended its long
ZN10Y note-2,205,937-0.68σ-0.43shortextended its short
TNUltra 10Y-335,858+0.07σ-0.23longcovered its long
ZBBond-154,020+2.34σ+0.51longextended its long
UBUltra bond-715,729+0.74σ+0.10longextended its long
FFFed funds144,897+0.43σ+0.00longextended its long
SR33M SOFR-2,245,507-0.81σ+0.12shortcovered its short
CFTC TFF leveraged money, report 13 Oct 2026. Net long a Treasury future is long duration. Side and week are derived from the signed z and Δz — they are not typed.

Duration scorecardduration scorecard →

JP leads the duration composite at +2.07σ.

MarketCompositeFactors
JP+2.074
AU+0.114
UK-0.014
US-0.466
CA-0.814
DE-0.905
Higher composite = bullish duration versus G7 peers. A country with too few live factors is omitted, not scored as zero.
Omitted from this issue
  • curve_IT_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable
  • curve_FR_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable

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US strip, G7 curve RV, Treasury positioning and the duration scorecard. On sessions where the 10-year moves 5 bp or more, the 20-session driver stack and 1 bp cubes. Free.

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