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FI Daily

G7 rates · 19 Oct 2026
Built 21 Oct 12:18 UTC · US Treasury close 19 Oct
strip close19 OctCOT T+3 report13 Octcredit close19 Octfactors4/6 live

US 10Y fell -3bp to 5.12%, bullish duration on the session. The 2s10s flattened -8bp to 33bp. ZN leveraged money extended its short at -0.7σ.

  • US 10Y fell -3bp to 5.12% — bullish duration.
  • US 2s10s flattened -8bp at 33bp.
  • ZN leveraged money extended its short at -0.7σ.

The US striplive strip →

The 10Y fell — bullish duration for the session.

US stripYield1dAs of
US 2Y4.790%+5.0bp20 Oct
US 5Y4.940%+5.0bp19 Oct
US 10Y5.120%-3.0bp20 Oct
US 30Y5.480%+5.0bp19 Oct
SOFR3.870%-1.0bp19 Oct
2s10s0.330%-8.0bp20 Oct
10s30s0.330%-1.0bp19 Oct
Change versus the previous print, in basis points. 2s10s is US10 − US2, computed once on the strip — not recomputed here.

Curve relative valuelive curve RV →

US 2s10s flattened -8bp.

10Y spreadLevel
Gilt − Bund 10Y1.970pp
BTP − Bund 10Y0.566pp
OAT − Bund 10Y1.057pp
Levels in percentage points. A spread is omitted when either leg is missing — never filled with zero. Session changes are not shown: the history behind the chart is a multi-year downsample, not a daily series.

Creditlive credit →

US HY OAS narrowed -2bp.

CreditLevel1d1mz 3yAs of
US IG OAS87bp+2bp+9bp+0.01σ19 Oct
US HY OAS329bp-2bp+59bp+0.76σ19 Oct
CCC − BB decompression1,110bp———19 Oct
NFCI (weekly)-0.499+0.008+0.008-0.07σ09 Oct
Option-adjusted spreads in basis points, change versus the previous print. z is against the series’ own three-year history. A wider spread is risk-off.
Rates against creditLevelLegsOn
CCC − BB decompression1,110bpCCC 1,310bp vs BB 200bp19 Oct
BB − BBB crossover92bpBB 200bp vs BBB 108bp19 Oct
HY OAS against 2s10spairHY OAS 329bp vs 2s10s 38bp19 Oct
IG yield over UST 10Y77bpIG yield 592bp vs UST 10Y 515bp19 Oct
Each signal is computed on the newest date both legs printed; neither leg is carried forward. A pair is shown as two legs because the difference between them is not a traded number.

Treasury positioningTreasury positioning →

ZN is short duration; it extended its short.

ContractNameNetz 52wΔzSideWeek
ZT2Y note-1,367,408+1.42σ-0.32longcovered its long
ZF5Y note-2,104,391+1.03σ+0.04longextended its long
ZN10Y note-2,205,937-0.68σ-0.43shortextended its short
TNUltra 10Y-335,858+0.07σ-0.23longcovered its long
ZBBond-154,020+2.34σ+0.51longextended its long
UBUltra bond-715,729+0.74σ+0.10longextended its long
FFFed funds144,897+0.43σ+0.00longextended its long
SR33M SOFR-2,245,507-0.81σ+0.12shortcovered its short
CFTC TFF leveraged money, report 13 Oct 2026. Net long a Treasury future is long duration. Side and week are derived from the signed z and Δz — they are not typed.

Duration scorecardduration scorecard →

JP leads the duration composite at +1.97σ.

MarketCompositeFactors
JP+1.974
US+0.474
AU-0.294
UK-0.334
CA-0.734
DE-1.095
Higher composite = bullish duration versus G7 peers. A country with too few live factors is omitted, not scored as zero.
Omitted from this issue
  • curve_US — no 10Y
  • curve_IT_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable
  • curve_FR_10y — makrognosis pair unavailable

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US strip, G7 curve RV, Treasury positioning and the duration scorecard. On sessions where the 10-year moves 5 bp or more, the 20-session driver stack and 1 bp cubes. Free.

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