GCC Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Saudi Q2 GDP Shrinks 4.8% on Oil Slump
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Aramco | 26.48 | +0.76% |
| MSCI Saudi | 36.96 | +0.11% |
| MSCI UAE | 18.93 | -1.92% |
| MSCI Qatar | 17.38 | -0.46% |
| MSCI Kuwait | 36.70 | +0.81% |
| Brent Crude | 90.12 | +1.22% |
| WTI Crude | 84.67 | +1.29% |
| Gold | 4,049.10 | -1.24% |
| USD/SAR | 3.76 | +0.01% |
| USD/AED | 3.67 | +0.04% |
| USD/KWD | 0.31 | -0.53% |
| Bitcoin | 63,374.10 | +0.89% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
GCC Trade Balance (Oil Exports) | Type: macro_line | Trade Balance USD bn: 16.24 (2026-05-01) | Range: -57.45–114.7 | Trend(5pt): 31.66,-22.17,-3.447,114.7,16.24
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted 4.8% in Q2 as oil output fell and regional tensions weighed on activity.
- Non-oil GDP expanded 0.6%, showing limited diversification progress amid the oil-driven downturn.
- Brent crude rose 1.22% to $90.12 while MSCI UAE fell 1.92% and Saudi equities edged higher.
Yesterday's Recap
Saudi Arabia reported a sharp 4.8% GDP contraction in Q2, driven by lower oil production and escalating West Asia conflict that disrupted trade routes. Non-oil GDP grew just 0.6%, underscoring slow progress on Vision 2030 diversification goals. Brent crude climbed to $90.12 per barrel on supply concerns after an LNG tanker carrying Qatari cargo was struck in the Strait of Hormuz.
MSCI Saudi rose 0.11% while MSCI UAE dropped 1.92% and MSCI Kuwait gained 0.81%. ADNOC shifted Abu Dhabi crude pricing back to the Dubai benchmark from November, abandoning the Murban futures attempt. UAE carriers cancelled select Bahrain and Kuwait flights amid heightened regional alerts.
Sovereign CDS spreads across the GCC remained stable despite the tensions. Saudi Aramco gained 0.76% to 26.48 and MSCI Qatar eased 0.46%. Gold fell 1.24% to 4,049.10 as risk appetite improved.
The Day Ahead
Markets will monitor any follow-through on Iranian threats to target Saudi, UAE and Qatari energy facilities. OPEC+ members are expected to maintain current quotas with no new cuts signalled. Traders will watch interbank rates for signs of liquidity pressure from elevated oil prices.
Regional airlines may issue further schedule adjustments if Strait of Hormuz risks persist. Equity flows are likely to remain sensitive to any escalation in maritime incidents. WTI crude at 84.67 and USD/SAR at 3.76 will guide sentiment alongside Bitcoin at 63,374.10.
No major data releases are scheduled.
Other Economic Notes
Oil remains the dominant fiscal driver for all six GCC economies despite diversification efforts. Elevated Brent prices above $90 support near-term revenue but heighten vulnerability to demand shocks. UAE and Saudi sovereign funds continue allocating to renewables and logistics to reduce oil dependence.
Regional inflation stayed contained as currency pegs limited imported price pressures. Policy flexibility has helped Saudi Arabia absorb the Q2 shock without immediate fiscal strain. IMF forecasts 5.5% Saudi growth in 2027 while analysts highlight resilience from spare capacity and non-oil buffers.
