GCC Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Houthi Aramco Claim Lifts Supply Risk Premia
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Aramco | 25.28 | +0.24% |
| MSCI Saudi | 36.22 | +0.30% |
| MSCI UAE | 19.55 | -1.31% |
| MSCI Qatar | 16.29 | +0.49% |
| MSCI Kuwait | 36.34 | +0.14% |
| Brent Crude | 102.25 | -0.06% |
| WTI Crude | 91.11 | -1.90% |
| Gold | 4,162.30 | -0.95% |
| USD/SAR | 3.75 | +3.15% |
| USD/AED | 3.67 | +0.04% |
| USD/KWD | 0.31 | -0.18% |
| Bitcoin | 84,790.06 | +0.35% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
USD/SAR 3M | Type: market_hloc | Rate: 3.754 (2026-10-02) | Range: 3.615–3.792 | Trend(6pt): 3.65,3.631,3.637,3.643,3.642,3.754
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Houthi forces claimed ballistic-missile and drone strikes on an Aramco facility near Riyadh, prompting Saudi counterstrikes on Sanaa.
- Saudi Aramco shares rose 0.24% while MSCI UAE fell 1.31% amid uneven non-oil signals; Brent held near $102.
- Saudi east-west pipeline flows exceeded 80% capacity, boosting export flexibility amid elevated regional tensions.
Yesterday's Recap
Houthi forces claimed a ballistic-missile and drone attack on a major Aramco oil facility near Riyadh on October 2, with fires reported at the site. Saudi forces responded with multiple strikes on the Yemeni capital Sanaa, marking the sharpest escalation in months. Saudi Arabia also intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile with only limited damage reported.
Saudi Aramco shares advanced 0.24% to 25.28 while MSCI Saudi gained 0.30% to 36.22, supported by oil-sector resilience. MSCI UAE declined 1.31% to 19.55 as non-oil recovery signals remained uneven. MSCI Qatar advanced 0.49% to 16.29 and MSCI Kuwait edged 0.14% higher to 36.34.
Brent crude slipped 0.06% to 102.25 while WTI fell 1.90% to 91.11. Gold declined 0.95% to 4,162.30. USD/SAR rose 3.15% to 3.75; USD/AED ticked up 0.04% to 3.67; USD/KWD eased 0.18% to 0.31.
Bitcoin added 0.35% to 84,790.06. Saudi Arabia raised flows on its key east-west pipeline above 80% of capacity, increasing west-coast export availability. Al Rajhi Capital highlighted continued Saudi economic resilience driven by robust oil infrastructure and diversification progress, with the budget deficit projected to narrow in 2027.
UAE non-oil activity continues to lead the Gulf rebound, though the pace varies across sectors and emirates.
The Day Ahead
No major data releases are scheduled across the GCC on October 3. Markets will monitor follow-through from the Saudi-Houthi exchange and any updates on oil supply routes. Qatar and Abu Dhabi F1 Grand Prix events are set to proceed as planned, with limited direct macro impact.
Regional security posture remains elevated, keeping oil-supply risk premia in focus. Investors will watch for any statements from Saudi or UAE officials on energy infrastructure security. UAE President meets US Senator Joni Ernst in Abu Dhabi to discuss ties and regional security.
Other Economic Notes
Saudi diversification under Vision 2030 remains on track, with oil strength providing fiscal headroom. Broader Gulf economies benefit from elevated crude prices near $102, supporting current-account surpluses. Non-oil growth momentum in Kuwait and Oman stays modest relative to Saudi and UAE readings.
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