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GCC Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

October 25, 2026 robomacro.com

Houthi Attacks on Saudi Send Brent Plunging 6%

Saudi Aramco25.40-0.70%
MSCI Saudi33.69-0.03%
MSCI UAE19.05-1.14%
MSCI Qatar15.18-0.74%

Market Snapshot

AssetLevelChange
Saudi Aramco25.40-0.70%
MSCI Saudi33.69-0.03%
MSCI UAE19.05-1.14%
MSCI Qatar15.18-0.74%
MSCI Kuwait34.32-0.71%
Brent Crude109.42-6.25%
WTI Crude101.02-2.18%
Gold4,022.20+0.36%
USD/SAR3.75+3.24%
USD/AED3.67+0.03%
USD/KWD0.31-0.63%
Bitcoin79,538.22-1.55%

Prior Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Actual
No events available
Saudi Industrial Production (YoY)Saudi Industrial Production (YoY) | Type: macro_line | Index YoY %: 7.935 (2026-08-01) | Range: -3.835–19.33 | Trend(6pt): 0.7882,5.318,8.671,3.545,7.313,7.935

Today's Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Time
No events available
  • Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi targets prompted security alerts in Riyadh and Najran while coalition forces intercepted multiple projectiles.
  • Brent crude fell 6.25% to 109.42 and regional equities declined, led by a 1.14% drop in MSCI UAE amid flight cancellations and an oil spill closing Ras Al-Khaimah beaches.
  • No macroeconomic data releases occurred across GCC markets yesterday, leaving geopolitical developments and crude price action as the dominant drivers.

Yesterday's Recap

Saudi-led coalition forces intercepted two Houthi drones and additional missiles aimed at Saudi territory, triggering air-raid alerts in Riyadh and Najran. The incidents underscore persistent Red Sea supply risks for GCC energy exports. In the UAE, an oil spill forced closure of all beaches in Ras Al-Khaimah while Etihad and flydubai cancelled multiple Abu Dhabi–Saudi flights through October 29.

Equity markets reflected the unease, with MSCI UAE falling 1.14% to 19.05, MSCI Qatar down 0.74% to 15.18 and MSCI Kuwait off 0.71% to 34.32. Saudi Aramco shares declined 0.70% to 25.40 while Brent’s 6.25% drop overshadowed a modest 0.36% gain in gold to 4,022.20. Saudi Arabia also postponed two major statistical forums until 2027.

Oman continued to attract digital-economy investment interest despite the regional tension. No central-bank policy meetings or inflation prints were scheduled or released in any GCC member state.

The Day Ahead

Markets will monitor ongoing Houthi activity around the Bab al-Mandab strait and any further flight or shipping disruptions. No official data releases are listed for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman or Bahrain. Traders will focus on crude inventory reports and any updates on OPEC+ compliance.

Regional equity desks expect continued sensitivity to Red Sea headlines rather than domestic fundamentals. Sovereign CDS spreads may tighten or widen depending on the scale of any new security incidents. Currency pegs remain stable, with USD/SAR holding at 3.75 and USD/AED at 3.67.

Other Economic Notes

Saudi Arabia’s decision to delay statistical forums highlights the priority given to security logistics over non-essential events. Oman’s push to attract digital-economy capital aligns with broader GCC efforts to diversify away from hydrocarbons. The economic role of women continues to expand in Saudi Arabia under Vision 2030 targets, supporting longer-term non-oil growth.

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GCC Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

October 25, 2026 robomacro.com
Brent Crude 3M Price Action Brent Crude 3M Price Action | Type: market_hloc | USD/bbl: 109.4 (2026-10-25) | Range: 79.36–116.7 | Trend(5pt): 88.36,91.02,107.6,102.2,109.4
USD/SAR FX Rate 3M USD/SAR FX Rate 3M | Type: market_hloc | USD per SAR: 3.753 (2026-10-26) | Range: 3.617–3.784 | Trend(6pt): 3.648,3.633,3.646,3.639,3.635,3.753
Saudi Equity ETF (KSA) 3M Saudi Equity ETF (KSA) 3M | Type: market_hloc | USD: 33.69 (2026-10-23) | Range: 33.69–39.48 | Trend(5pt): 37.07,38.02,38.3,36.11,33.69
Gold vs Brent 3M Gold vs Brent 3M | Type: market_hloc | Gold USD: 4024 (2026-10-25) | Range: 4008–4698 | Trend(5pt): 4077,4421,4407,4162,4024 | Brent USD: 109.4 (2026-10-25) | Range: 79.36–116.7 | Trend(5pt): 88.36,91.02,107.6,102.2,109.4

Other Economic Notes (continued)

UAE authorities are managing the immediate environmental and aviation fallout from the Ras Al-Khaimah spill while maintaining focus on tourism recovery. Fiscal balances across the region remain exposed to Brent volatility, reinforcing the need for continued non-oil revenue measures.

Global Macro News

Sharp declines in Brent and WTI reflect both demand concerns and shifting supply-risk perceptions despite heightened Middle East tensions. Canada’s inflation edged lower to 2.3% as gasoline prices fell, illustrating how energy price swings transmit globally. Australia’s energy-price shock keeps rate-hike options open for the RBA, a dynamic mirrored in GCC inflation pass-through via imported goods.

China’s absence from US LNG cargoes underscores shifting global energy trade flows that indirectly affect GCC export strategies. Nigeria’s new $300 million distributed-energy fund highlights emerging-market efforts to reduce oil dependence, a theme resonant with GCC diversification plans. Pakistan and Qatar reaffirmed trade and investment ties, adding another layer to Gulf-Asia economic linkages.

Broader equity and crypto weakness, including Bitcoin’s 1.55% decline to 79,538.22, signals risk-off sentiment that can pressure GCC capital flows.

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GCC Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

October 25, 2026 robomacro.com

Continuation

GCC Central Banks Watch

All six GCC central banks maintained policy rates unchanged in line with the Federal Reserve’s recent stance, preserving the USD pegs for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain. Kuwait’s dinar basket peg continued to show modest USD/KWD softening of 0.63%. Interbank rates remained anchored, with SAIBOR and EIBOR exhibiting no material widening despite regional security headlines.

FX reserve adequacy across the bloc stays comfortable, supported by still-elevated though lower oil prices. No divergence in rate paths has emerged among SAMA, CBUAE, QCB, CBK, CBO or CBB. Liquidity conditions in local money markets stayed orderly, allowing central banks to focus on financial-stability monitoring rather than immediate policy adjustment.

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