Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China CPI Misses, Equities Rally on PBoC Support
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,036.59 | +1.65% |
| CSI 300 | 4,876.31 | +2.54% |
| Hang Seng | 24,199.46 | +2.99% |
| TAIEX | 45,734.41 | +0.56% |
| USD/CNY | 6.79 | -0.03% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | -0.07% |
| Copper | 6.25 | +3.19% |
| Brent Crude | 76.04 | -2.54% |
| Gold | 4,132.60 | +1.52% |
| Bitcoin | 63,194.00 | +1.50% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.10 | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 3.90 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
China Imports YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY %: 25.05 (2026-04-01) | Range: -21.28–29.91 | Trend(5pt): 29.91,-1.354,1.57,7.315,25.05
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 105,430m | - | 23:00 |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 19.40 | - | 23:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 27.40 | - | 23:00 |
| House Price Index Year-over-Year | -3.50 | - | 21:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 5 | 4.40 | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 4.50 | 4.70 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | -0.60 | -0.10 | 22:00 |
| Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Year-over-Year | -4.10 | -5 | 22:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 1.30 | 0.90 | 22:00 |
- China June CPI YoY fell to 1.0% against 1.1% consensus while PPI YoY rose to 4.1%, highlighting export strength versus domestic weakness.
- Shanghai Composite rose 1.65% and Hang Seng jumped 2.99% as offshore yuan rebounded on PBoC liquidity signals.
- PBoC, HKMA and SFC jointly announced plans to develop a Hong Kong-based trading platform to deepen cross-border flows.
Yesterday's Recap
China June inflation data showed consumer prices rising just 1.0% YoY, below the 1.1% consensus, while the month-over-month print came in at -0.3%. Producer prices climbed 4.1% YoY, matching forecasts and marking the strongest increase in nearly four years amid higher input costs from geopolitical shocks. Equity markets responded positively, with the Shanghai Composite closing at 4,036.59 (+1.65%) and CSI 300 at 4,876.31 (+2.54%).
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index surged 2.99% to 24,199.46, supported by USD/HKD stability at 7.84. The offshore yuan rebounded as traders priced in continued PBoC easing to counter weak domestic demand. Taiwan’s TAIEX edged up 0.56% to 45,734.41 on resilient AI-related semiconductor orders.
Copper gained 3.19% to 6.25, reflecting improved China growth sentiment, while Brent crude fell 2.54% to 76.04.
The Day Ahead
China will release June trade balance, exports and imports on 13 July, with markets watching for signs of sustained export momentum. GDP, industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment data are scheduled for 14 July and are expected to confirm softening domestic activity. House price index figures will provide an update on the property sector on 14 July.
No major data releases are due in Hong Kong or Taiwan tomorrow. Investors will also monitor PBoC liquidity operations and any State Council comments on growth support.
Other Economic Notes
PBoC officials highlighted structural divergences, noting AI-driven export strength masking tepid consumer demand. China’s reflationary momentum appears to be peaking as the Iran-related price shock fades, leaving domestic prices fragile. Passenger-car sales contracted again in June despite robust overseas shipments, underscoring the split between external and internal demand.
Joint PBOC-HKMA-SFC efforts to build a Hong Kong trading platform aim to channel capital more efficiently amid these imbalances.
Global Macro News
Brent crude’s 2.54% decline reduces imported inflation pressures for China while supporting export competitiveness. <i>↓ p.2</i>
