Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PBoC's Stronger Fixing Lifts Yuan, CSI 300 Falls
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,996.16 | -1.00% |
| CSI 300 | 4,780.79 | -1.96% |
| Hang Seng | 24,175.12 | +0.60% |
| TAIEX | 45,354.61 | -0.83% |
| USD/CNY | 6.78 | -0.24% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.04% |
| Copper | 6.28 | +1.08% |
| Brent Crude | 76.01 | -0.38% |
| Gold | 4,113.70 | -0.41% |
| Bitcoin | 63,763.73 | -0.06% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
China Exports YoY Growth | Type: macro_line | Exports YoY %: 13.75 (2026-04-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(5pt): 24.38,0.5134,0.6066,0.7746,13.75
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 105,430m | 121,000m | 23:00 |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 19.40 | 18.20 | 23:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 27.40 | 24 | 23:00 |
| House Price Index Year-over-Year | -3.50 | - | 21:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 5 | 4.40 | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 4.50 | 4.70 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | -0.60 | -0.10 | 22:00 |
| Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Year-over-Year | -4.10 | -4.90 | 22:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 1.30 | 0.90 | 22:00 |
- PBoC sets yuan reference above 6.80 for first time since 2023, supporting CNY gains
- Shanghai Composite drops 1.00% while Hang Seng rises 0.60% on selective buying
- Shein secures CSRC approval for Hong Kong IPO amid China property weakness
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China equity benchmarks declined on 11 July, with the Shanghai Composite falling 1.00% to 3,996.16 and the CSI 300 dropping 1.96% to 4,780.79 amid lingering concerns over June credit data. The Hang Seng Index advanced 0.60% to 24,175.12, supported by gains in select consumer names, while the TAIEX eased 0.83% to 45,354.61. The PBoC fixed the yuan reference rate above 6.80 for the first time since 2023, allowing USD/CNY to close at 6.78 after a 0.24% appreciation and signalling tolerance for modest CNY strength.
USD/HKD remained anchored at 7.84 inside the peg band with no HKMA intervention. Copper rose 1.08% to 6.28 on stimulus expectations while Brent crude slipped 0.38% to 76.01 and gold eased 0.41% to 4,113.70. Bitcoin was little changed at 63,763.73.
Shein received CSRC clearance for its Hong Kong listing, marking a key regulatory milestone for the fast-fashion group. Mainland property sales continued to contract sharply, reinforcing downside risks to domestic demand.
The Day Ahead
China will release June trade balance, exports and imports data at 23:00 ET on 13 July, with consensus pointing to a wider surplus of USD 121 bn and export growth easing to 18.2% y/y from 19.4%. Imports are expected to rise 24% y/y versus 27.4% prior. GDP, industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment figures follow on 14 July at 22:00 ET, where markets expect GDP growth to slow to 4.4% y/y from 5.0% and retail sales to improve only to -0.1% from -0.6%.
Industrial production is seen at 4.7% versus 4.5% prior, while fixed-asset investment is forecast at -4.9% from -4.1%. The house-price index release at 21:30 ET on 14 July will provide fresh evidence on the property sector trajectory after the prior -3.5% reading. No PBoC, HKMA or CBC policy announcements are scheduled.
Other Economic Notes
China’s Q2 growth slowdown has been compounded by de-facto fiscal tightening, according to Citi analysis, limiting the scope for broad stimulus. Property developers face sustained sales pressure, prompting targeted easing measures in Shanghai and Shenzhen rather than nationwide policy shifts. Shein’s Hong Kong IPO approval highlights Beijing’s selective support for high-profile listings that can channel capital into strategic sectors.
<i>↓ p.2</i>
