Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Yuan Hits One-Week High on PBOC Fixing
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,996.16 | -1.00% |
| CSI 300 | 4,780.79 | -1.96% |
| Hang Seng | 24,175.12 | +0.60% |
| TAIEX | 45,354.61 | -0.83% |
| USD/CNY | 6.77 | -0.31% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.02% |
| Copper | 6.28 | +0.68% |
| Brent Crude | 83.18 | +9.43% |
| Gold | 4,008.70 | -2.32% |
| Bitcoin | 62,043.75 | -2.69% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
China Exports & Imports YoY | Type: macro_line | Exports YoY %: 13.75 (2026-04-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(5pt): 24.38,0.5134,0.6066,0.7746,13.75 | Imports YoY %: 25.05 (2026-04-01) | Range: -21.28–29.91 | Trend(5pt): 29.91,-1.354,1.57,7.315,25.05
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Year-over-Year | 19.40 | 18.20 | 19:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 27.40 | 24 | 19:00 |
| Trade Balance | 105,430m | 121,000m | 19:00 |
| House Price Index Year-over-Year | -3.50 | - | 17:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 5 | 4.50 | 18:00 |
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 4.50 | 4.60 | 18:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | -0.60 | -0.10 | 18:00 |
| Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Year-over-Year | -4.10 | -4.90 | 18:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 1.30 | 0.90 | 18:00 |
- PBOC sets stronger yuan fixing, lifting CNY to one-week high at 6.77.
- Mainland equities fall sharply while Hong Kong edges higher ahead of trade prints.
- China GDP growth, industrial output and retail sales due tomorrow with consensus pointing to slowdown.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland Chinese equities declined on Monday with the Shanghai Composite closing at 3,996.16, down 1.00 percent, and the CSI 300 falling 1.96 percent to 4,780.79. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.60 percent to 24,175.12 while the TAIEX slipped 0.83 percent. The PBOC set a stronger daily fixing that allowed the yuan to climb to a one-week high, with USD/CNY ending at 6.77, down 0.31 percent.
No high-impact data were released in Greater China on Monday. Copper gained 0.68 percent to 6.28 as a China demand proxy while Brent crude jumped 9.43 percent. Shein received CSRC approval for its Hong Kong IPO, adding positive sentiment for HK listings.
Property sales in tier-1 cities continued to weaken, keeping developer funding pressure elevated without fresh stimulus measures. Taiwan’s semiconductor export strength in June provided a bright spot for the island’s external sector. Cross-strait investment flows remained stable amid muted political rhetoric.
No new regulatory tightening on tech platforms emerged over the past week.
The Day Ahead
China will release June exports, imports and trade balance at 19:00 ET today, with consensus forecasts showing a modest slowdown from May prints. Tomorrow brings the June House Price Index, GDP growth, industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment figures. GDP is expected at 4.5 percent year-over-year while industrial production is seen at 4.6 percent.
Retail sales are forecast to remain negative at minus 0.1 percent. Fixed-asset investment is projected to contract further to minus 4.9 percent year-to-date. Markets will watch for any signs of additional policy support if the data disappoint.
The June House Price Index is expected to show continued weakness, extending the multi-year decline in residential values. Fixed-asset investment contraction is forecast to deepen, reflecting subdued private-sector capex amid elevated financing costs for developers. Any material downside surprise in GDP or retail sales could raise expectations for near-term liquidity support from the PBOC.
Other Economic Notes
Property sales in tier-1 cities continued to weaken, keeping developer funding pressure elevated without fresh stimulus measures. <i>↓ p.2</i>
