Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Exports Surge, GDP Slowdown Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,967.13 | +1.36% |
| CSI 300 | 4,796.50 | +0.33% |
| Hang Seng | 24,213.72 | +0.16% |
| TAIEX | 45,380.52 | +0.06% |
| USD/CNY | 6.76 | -0.21% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | -0.03% |
| Copper | 6.37 | +2.15% |
| Brent Crude | 85.34 | +2.45% |
| Gold | 4,058.30 | +1.53% |
| Bitcoin | 64,564.01 | +3.74% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Year-over-Year | 19.40 | 18.20 | 27 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 27.40 | 24 | 36 |
| Trade Balance | 105,430m | 121,000m | 125,800m |
China Exports YoY Growth | Type: macro_line | YoY %: 13.75 (2026-04-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(5pt): 24.38,0.5134,0.6066,0.7746,13.75
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| House Price Index Year-over-Year | -3.50 | - | 17:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 5 | 4.50 | 18:00 |
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 4.50 | 4.60 | 18:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | -0.60 | -0.10 | 18:00 |
| Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Year-over-Year | -4.10 | -4.90 | 18:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 1.30 | 0.90 | 18:00 |
- China June exports jumped 27% y/y and imports rose 36% y/y, lifting the trade surplus to $125.8 bn and supporting the yuan.
- Equities advanced with Shanghai Composite up 1.36% to 3,967.13 and CSI 300 gaining 0.33% to 4,796.50 on trade strength.
- Markets await Q2 GDP and June activity data today, with consensus pointing to a slowdown in growth to 4.5% y/y.
Yesterday's Recap
China posted stronger-than-expected June trade figures that lifted sentiment across Greater China assets. Exports rose 27% y/y while imports climbed 36% y/y, widening the surplus to $125.8 bn and easing pressure on the external balance. The Shanghai Composite closed at 3,967.13, up 1.36%, and the CSI 300 finished at 4,796.50, gaining 0.33%.
The Hang Seng added 0.16% to 24,213.72 and the TAIEX edged 0.06% higher to 45,380.52. USD/CNY fell 0.21% to 6.76 as the yuan benefited from the trade outperformance, while USD/HKD slipped 0.03% to 7.84. Copper rose 2.15% to 6.37, reflecting improved China demand signals.
Brent crude gained 2.45% to 85.34 and gold advanced 1.53% to 4,058.30, underscoring commodity strength tied to external demand resilience.
The Day Ahead
China will release Q2 GDP growth, June industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment at 18:00 ET, with consensus forecasts showing a moderation in activity. GDP growth is expected at 4.5% y/y versus 5% prior, industrial production at 4.6% y/y, retail sales at -0.1% y/y and fixed-asset investment at -4.9% y/y. House prices are also due at 17:30 ET.
Markets will watch for any signs of further property weakness or consumption softness that could prompt additional policy support. No major data releases are scheduled in Hong Kong or Taiwan. The PBoC is expected to conduct routine 7-day reverse repo operations to manage liquidity ahead of the data print.
Other Economic Notes
Weak domestic demand continues to weigh on the mainland economy even as external demand for green-tech and semiconductor-related goods remains resilient. Property investment trends and retail sales will be scrutinized for evidence of stabilization after earlier stimulus measures. Fixed-asset investment is projected to contract further, keeping pressure on local governments to accelerate project approvals.
Cross-strait semiconductor supply chains show steady export momentum from Taiwan, supporting regional trade flows without new policy disruptions. China’s green-tech exports rose more than a third in the first half, driven by global energy transition demand.
