Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Services PMI Weakens in July
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,900.35 | +0.57% |
| CSI 300 | 4,651.31 | -0.15% |
| Hang Seng | 25,915.82 | +0.24% |
| TAIEX | 44,611.60 | +2.88% |
| USD/CNY | 6.74 | -0.15% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.02% |
| Copper | 6.72 | +0.21% |
| Brent Crude | 83.55 | +5.16% |
| Gold | 4,298.70 | +1.25% |
| Bitcoin | 64,323.99 | -0.42% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratingdog Services PMI Index | 54.10 | 53.70 | 50.40 |
TAIEX Index | Type: market_hloc | Index Level: 4.461e+04 (2026-08-05) | Range: 3.993e+04–4.774e+04 | Trend(5pt): 4.114e+04,4.364e+04,4.774e+04,4.563e+04,4.461e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Year-over-Year | 27 | 22.70 | 19:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 36 | 28.60 | 19:00 |
| Trade Balance | 125,620m | 108,000m | 19:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1 | - | 17:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.30 | - | 17:30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 4.10 | - | 17:30 |
- China Services PMI fell sharply to 50.4 in July, missing consensus and signaling cooling momentum.
- PBoC injected 398.5 billion yuan via reverse repos while pledging timely policy adjustments.
- TAIEX surged 2.88% on semiconductor strength; USD/CNY eased to 6.74 amid yuan support calls.
Yesterday's Recap
China’s July Ratingdog Services PMI dropped to 50.4 from 54.1, well below the 53.7 consensus and highlighting softening demand in the services sector. Equity markets closed mixed, with the Shanghai Composite rising 0.57% to 3,900.35 while the CSI 300 slipped 0.15% to 4,651.31. The Hang Seng Index gained 0.24% to 25,915.82, supported by selective buying in tech names.
Taiwan’s TAIEX jumped 2.88% to 44,611.60 after strong semiconductor export readings. USD/CNY declined 0.15% to 6.74, reflecting modest yuan appreciation pressure, while USD/HKD held steady near 7.84 inside the peg band. Copper rose 0.21% to 6.72 as a China growth proxy, and Brent crude climbed 5.16% to 83.55 on global supply concerns.
PBoC liquidity operations kept short-term rates anchored at 1.40%. China’s verified May CPI stood at 1.20% year-over-year, underscoring persistent low inflation that keeps policy easing bias intact. Property sales among top developers continued to contract, prompting expectations of expanded white-list financing.
Hong Kong’s aggregate balance remained above HK$500 billion, preserving HKMA peg stability.
The Day Ahead
China will release July exports, imports and trade balance at 19:00 ET, with consensus pointing to a slowdown from prior double-digit gains. The figures will test resilience in external demand amid ongoing US-China trade frictions. No major data are scheduled for Hong Kong or Taiwan tomorrow.
Markets will monitor PBoC open-market operations for any shift in liquidity stance ahead of next week’s CPI release. Investors also await comments from State Council officials on fiscal support measures flagged by Goldman Sachs. Cross-strait semiconductor supply-chain updates could influence TAIEX flows.
Goldman Sachs recommended gradual yuan appreciation and fiscal stimulus to counter protectionism and lift domestic demand. Record consumer defaults are constraining bank lending despite Beijing’s push for consumption-led growth.
Other Economic Notes
China’s verified May CPI stood at 1.20% year-over-year, underscoring persistent low inflation that keeps policy easing bias intact. <i>↓ p.2</i>
