Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMIs Loom Amid Yuan Revaluation Calls
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,952.18 | -0.11% |
| CSI 300 | 4,609.18 | -0.46% |
| Hang Seng | 25,584.79 | +0.07% |
| TAIEX | 46,331.45 | +0.77% |
| USD/CNY | 6.73 | +0.04% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.01% |
| Copper | 6.66 | +1.09% |
| Brent Crude | 88.10 | -1.78% |
| Gold | 4,529.90 | -1.73% |
| Bitcoin | 78,600.48 | +0.99% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
China Exports (USD) | Type: macro_line | Value (USD mn): 25.39 (2026-06-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(6pt): 28.08,-7.386,3.985,11.57,20.45,25.39
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS Manufacturing PMI Index | 49.20 | 49.70 | 21:30 |
| NBS Non Manufacturing PMI Index | 49 | 49.50 | 21:30 |
| Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.90 | 50.90 | 21:45 |
| Ratingdog Services PMI Index | 50.40 | 50.60 | 21:45 |
- NBS Manufacturing PMI due at 49.7 consensus versus 49.2 prior
- Mainland equities slip while TAIEX rises 0.77% on semiconductor strength
- USD/CNY at 6.73 as Commerzbank flags export gains from undervaluation
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China equities closed modestly lower with the Shanghai Composite declining 0.11% to 3,952.18 and the CSI 300 falling 0.46% to 4,609.18 amid thin turnover and no fresh policy signals. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index edged up 0.07% to 25,584.79 while the TAIEX in Taiwan advanced 0.77% to 46,331.45, buoyed by semiconductor export momentum. USD/CNY rose 0.04% to 6.73 and USD/HKD held near 7.84, keeping the HKMA peg stable.
Copper gained 1.09% to 6.66 as a China growth proxy while Brent Crude fell 1.78% to 88.10 and gold dropped 1.73% to 4,529.90. No macroeconomic data releases occurred across mainland China, Hong Kong or Taiwan on August 29. News flow centered on external commentary questioning the yuan's valuation and its role in export competitiveness.
The Day Ahead
Investors will focus on the NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI both scheduled for release at 21:30 ET today, with consensus pointing to modest rebounds to 49.7 and 49.5 respectively. Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI follows tomorrow at the same time with expectations unchanged at 50.9. These prints will provide the first high-frequency read on August activity after July's CPI rose 0.50% year-on-year.
Markets will also monitor any PBoC liquidity operations ahead of month-end. Hong Kong and Taiwan calendars remain light outside the mainland data flow. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge up to 49.5 from 49.0, offering insight into services momentum that has lagged manufacturing in recent months.
Any downside surprise could reinforce calls for targeted credit support rather than broad stimulus.
Other Economic Notes
External analysts continue to highlight China's export surge as a potential source of global imbalances, with Commerzbank noting that currency undervaluation may be amplifying gains in manufacturing shipments. Property sector sentiment in mainland China shows tentative stabilization after earlier purchase restriction easing in tier-2 cities, though price recovery remains absent. Semiconductor supply chains stay central for Taiwan, where strong July export growth has reduced near-term pressure on the CBC to ease policy.
Trade tensions with the United States persist, including restrictions on advanced chips, without triggering immediate escalation from Beijing. <i>↓ p.2</i>
