Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMI Beats as Factory Contraction Eases
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,952.18 | -0.11% |
| CSI 300 | 4,609.18 | -0.46% |
| Hang Seng | 25,584.79 | +0.07% |
| TAIEX | 46,331.45 | +0.77% |
| USD/CNY | 6.72 | -0.05% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | -0.01% |
| Copper | 6.69 | +1.94% |
| Brent Crude | 88.53 | -0.87% |
| Gold | 4,497.30 | +0.43% |
| Bitcoin | 78,974.99 | +1.47% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS Manufacturing PMI Index | 49.20 | 49.70 | 49.80 |
| NBS Non Manufacturing PMI Index | 49 | 49.50 | 49 |
China Exports Value | Type: macro_line | Exports (USD mn): 25.39 (2026-06-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(6pt): 28.08,-7.386,3.985,11.57,20.45,25.39 | Imports (USD mn): 33.45 (2026-06-01) | Range: -21.28–33.45 | Trend(6pt): 17.95,-9.866,14.76,-4.179,30.35,33.45
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.90 | 51 | 21:45 |
| Ratingdog Services PMI Index | 50.40 | 50.60 | 21:45 |
| Tuesday (2026-09-01) | |||
| Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.90 | 51 | 21:45 |
- NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August, beating consensus of 49.7 and prior 49.2, signaling slower contraction in mainland China factory activity.
- Non-manufacturing PMI held at 49.0, missing expectations, while equity markets showed mixed performance with CSI 300 down 0.46% and TAIEX up 0.77%.
- PBOC set USD/CNY central parity at 6.7828, slightly weaker, amid renewed calls for yuan revaluation from global policymakers.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China’s NBS manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in August from 49.2, exceeding the 49.7 consensus and marking the second straight month of contraction but at a milder pace. The non-manufacturing PMI printed flat at 49.0, missing forecasts and highlighting persistent weakness in services. Shanghai Composite slipped 0.11% while CSI 300 fell 0.46%, reflecting caution despite the PMI beat.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.07% and Taiwan’s TAIEX gained 0.77% on semiconductor strength. USD/CNY closed at 6.72 after the PBOC fix at 6.7828, with the yuan showing modest resilience. Copper rose 1.94% as a China growth proxy while Brent crude declined 0.87%.
Overall, data pointed to gradual stabilization in mainland manufacturing without broad-based momentum. Equity desks noted limited follow-through buying, with investors awaiting confirmation from private-sector surveys before committing to a sustained recovery narrative.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the Ratingdog manufacturing PMI release scheduled for 21:45 ET today, with consensus at 51.0 versus the prior 50.9. The companion services PMI is also due, expected at 50.6. Traders will monitor any divergence from official NBS figures for confirmation of the manufacturing uptick.
No major data are slated from Hong Kong or Taiwan, keeping attention on mainland indicators. Equity and currency desks will watch for follow-through on yesterday’s PBOC fix and any State Council signals on stimulus. Copper and Brent crude price action may provide early clues on industrial demand expectations ahead of the private PMI prints.
Other Economic Notes
China’s factory sector remains under pressure despite the PMI improvement, with export gains drawing scrutiny over potential currency undervaluation. Commerzbank analysts questioned whether recent export strength reflects genuine competitiveness or exchange-rate effects. Property sector weakness continues to weigh on domestic demand, limiting the transmission of any policy easing.
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