Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMI Beats, Yuan Fix Weakens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,979.89 | -0.16% |
| CSI 300 | 4,611.44 | +0.05% |
| Hang Seng | 25,566.99 | +0.00% |
| TAIEX | 46,128.47 | +0.33% |
| USD/CNY | 6.71 | -0.23% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.01% |
| Copper | 6.53 | -0.90% |
| Brent Crude | 95.22 | +5.23% |
| Gold | 4,375.70 | -1.25% |
| Bitcoin | 77,183.59 | -1.74% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.90 | 51 | 51.50 |
China Merchandise Exports | Type: macro_line | USD bn: 25.39 (2026-06-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(5pt): 28.5,-7.732,0.4113,7.56,25.39
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratingdog Services PMI Index | 50.40 | 50.60 | 17:45 |
| Wednesday (2026-09-02) | |||
| Ratingdog Services PMI Index | 50.40 | 50.60 | 17:45 |
- China’s August Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5, beating consensus and signaling modest expansion.
- USD/CNY closed at 6.71 after PBoC set a weaker central parity near 6.78.
- HKMA reported stable aggregate balance and 0.9% deposit growth in July data.
Yesterday's Recap
China’s Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.5 in August from 50.9, exceeding the 51.0 consensus and marking the first reading above 50 in two months. The beat eased immediate pressure for aggressive stimulus while keeping LPR easing in play. Shanghai Composite fell 0.16% to 3,979.89 while CSI 300 edged 0.05% higher to 4,611.44.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed flat at 25,566.99 and TAIEX rose 0.33% to 46,128.47. USD/CNY declined 0.23% to 6.71 after the PBoC fixed the daily reference rate at 6.7809. Copper dropped 0.90% to 6.53 on softer global demand signals.
HKMA July data showed total deposits up 0.9% and foreign reserves steady near HK$4.4 trillion. Property-sector restructuring continued with creditor approval for Evergrande’s latest plan, though share trading stays suspended. Local-government special-bond issuance picked up in late August, supporting infrastructure outlays.
Semiconductor export orders in Taiwan rose 18.2% y/y in August, reinforcing steady-rate bias at the CBC.
The Day Ahead
Markets await China’s Ratingdog Services PMI at 17:45 ET, with consensus at 50.6 versus 50.4 prior. The print will clarify whether service-sector momentum can offset lingering manufacturing softness. No major Taiwan or Hong Kong data releases are scheduled.
Investors will monitor PBoC liquidity operations and any State Council comments on special-bond quotas. HKMA aggregate balance and USD/HKD peg dynamics remain in focus amid stable rate-rise expectations following recent Fed signals. Cross-strait trade flows showed resilience despite ongoing US export-control scrutiny on advanced packaging capacity.
Other Economic Notes
Treasury Secretary Bessent urged G20 peers to reassess trade ties with China amid persistent imbalances. Global funds reduced yuan options activity as decade-low volatility curbed hedging demand. Brent crude surged 5.23% to 95.22 on supply concerns, while gold fell 1.25% to 4,375.70.
India’s 7.8% Q1 GDP beat highlighted diverging Asian growth paths. US sanctions threats over China-Iran links face credibility questions given AI-driven demand for Chinese components. <i>↓ p.2</i>
