Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMI Beats, Equities Slip; Yuan Fix Weaker
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,941.39 | -0.97% |
| CSI 300 | 4,547.96 | -1.38% |
| Hang Seng | 25,329.73 | -0.93% |
| TAIEX | 46,948.72 | +1.78% |
| USD/CNY | 6.72 | -0.11% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.03% |
| Copper | 6.61 | +1.54% |
| Brent Crude | 95.23 | +0.61% |
| Gold | 4,434.30 | +1.98% |
| Bitcoin | 77,251.04 | -0.20% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.90 | 51 | 51.50 |
China Exports Value YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY %: 25.39 (2026-06-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(5pt): 28.5,-7.732,0.4113,7.56,25.39
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratingdog Services PMI Index | 50.40 | 50.60 | 21:45 |
| Trade Balance | 112,500m | - | 23:00 |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 23.90 | - | 23:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 27.50 | - | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 0.50 | - | 21:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.10 | - | 21:30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 3.50 | - | 21:30 |
- China’s Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August, beating consensus of 51.0 and prior 50.9, signaling modest stabilization in factory activity.
- Mainland equities declined with Shanghai Composite falling 0.97% to 3,941.39 and CSI 300 dropping 1.38% to 4,547.96, while TAIEX gained 1.78% to 46,948.72.
- PBoC set the USD/CNY central parity at 6.7829, weaker than the prior fix, as offshore yuan volatility remained suppressed.
Yesterday's Recap
China’s August Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI printed at 51.5, exceeding the 51.0 consensus and lifting the new orders sub-index, which pointed to tentative stabilization in industrial activity after earlier softness. Equity markets diverged across Greater China: Shanghai Composite closed at 3,941.39 (-0.97%) and CSI 300 at 4,547.96 (-1.38%), pressured by lingering concerns over government bond supply and tech export licensing, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.93% to 25,329.73. Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 1.78% to 46,948.72, supported by semiconductor order visibility.
USD/CNY settled at 6.72 (-0.11%), and the PBoC’s yuan reference rate was fixed at 6.7809, slightly weaker than the previous level. Copper gained 1.54% to 6.61 on stimulus expectations, while Brent crude rose 0.61% to 95.23 and gold advanced 1.98% to 4,434.30. No material data emerged from Hong Kong or Taiwan.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on China’s Ratingdog Services PMI due tonight at 21:45 ET, with consensus at 50.6 after last month’s 50.4 print. Trade balance, exports and imports data scheduled for 23:00 ET on September 7 will provide the next gauge of external demand. CPI and PPI releases on September 8 at 21:30 ET will update the inflation picture, with the last verified CPI YoY reading at 0.50%.
PBoC liquidity operations and any State Council signals on bond issuance timing will also draw attention. No major Hong Kong or Taiwan releases are expected in the immediate window.
Other Economic Notes
China plans to accelerate government bond sales while the PBoC maintains its focus on targeted liquidity support. Property sentiment showed modest improvement after several cities expanded mortgage relief for first-time buyers, though no large-scale developer resolutions materialized. Hong Kong’s aggregate balance remained steady near HK$440 billion, keeping the USD/HKD peg at 7.84 with minimal stress.
Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain continued to benefit from global demand without fresh regulatory overhang. Cross-strait trade flows stayed constructive amid tariff support measures that saved local firms NT$4.2 billion.
