Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Trade Data Eyed as HK Pushes Yuan Plan
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,930.12 | -0.30% |
| CSI 300 | 4,548.05 | -0.10% |
| Hang Seng | 25,650.87 | +1.74% |
| TAIEX | 46,551.13 | +1.51% |
| USD/CNY | 6.70 | -0.28% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | -0.00% |
| Copper | 6.68 | +1.30% |
| Brent Crude | 96.28 | +0.00% |
| Gold | 4,476.60 | +1.06% |
| Bitcoin | 79,088.01 | -1.57% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
China Exports YoY | Type: macro_line | Exports YoY %: 25.39 (2026-06-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(5pt): 28.5,-7.732,0.4113,7.56,25.39
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 112,500m | 119,100m | 23:00 |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 23.90 | 25 | 23:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 27.50 | 30 | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 0.50 | 0.80 | 21:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.30 | 21:30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 3.50 | 3.70 | 21:30 |
- China August trade balance, exports and imports due tonight with consensus pointing to further surplus expansion.
- Hang Seng and TAIEX rose 1.74% and 1.51% while Shanghai Composite fell 0.30% on thin mainland volumes.
- PBoC added most gold since 2023; HK five-year plan targets wider offshore yuan use.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China equity indices closed lower on September 6 with Shanghai Composite at 3,930.12 (-0.30%) and CSI 300 at 4,548.05 (-0.10%). Hong Kong and Taiwan markets advanced, with Hang Seng reaching 25,650.87 (+1.74%) and TAIEX at 46,551.13 (+1.51%). USD/CNY eased 0.28% to 6.70 while USD/HKD stayed at 7.84.
No macroeconomic releases occurred across mainland China, Hong Kong or Taiwan. China’s foreign-exchange reserves rose further in August on a weaker dollar and widening trade surplus. The People’s Bank of China purchased the largest volume of gold since 2023 despite elevated prices.
Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee outlined the city’s first five-year plan, which will prioritize expanded offshore yuan usage and deeper cross-border investment links with the mainland. Copper rose 1.30% to 6.68 while gold gained 1.06% to 4,476.60, reflecting industrial and safe-haven demand. Brent crude held steady at 96.28.
The Day Ahead
China will publish August trade balance, exports year-over-year and imports year-over-year at 23:00 ET, with consensus forecasts of USD 119.1 billion, +25.0% and +30.0% respectively. The 26th China International Fair for Investment and Trade opens tomorrow in Xiamen and runs through September 11. No PBoC open-market operations, HKMA interventions or CBC policy meetings are scheduled.
Copper advanced 1.30% to 6.68, providing a positive signal for industrial demand ahead of the trade print. Brent crude held steady at 96.28 while gold rose 1.06% to 4,476.60. Markets will also monitor any follow-through from the HKMA and SFC statements on yuan adoption and AI readiness in Hong Kong banking.
Other Economic Notes
China’s foreign-exchange reserves continued climbing in August, heightening market focus on potential yuan appreciation pressure. The People’s Bank of China accelerated gold purchases even as bullion prices surged, underscoring diversification efforts. The upcoming CIFIT investment fair in Xiamen will showcase cross-border project opportunities amid steady foreign-reserve accumulation.
Broader themes include sustained trade-surplus momentum and policy support for yuan internationalization through Hong Kong channels. Hong Kong’s five-year plan explicitly expands offshore yuan usage and cross-border investment, aligning with HKMA calls for greater yuan adoption.
