Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Trade Hits Target, CPI Print Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,940.55 | +0.20% |
| CSI 300 | 4,558.74 | +0.23% |
| Hang Seng | 25,413.12 | -0.93% |
| TAIEX | 47,326.27 | +1.67% |
| USD/CNY | 6.71 | +0.00% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.01% |
| Copper | 6.77 | +2.66% |
| Brent Crude | 99.33 | +3.17% |
| Gold | 4,395.90 | -0.77% |
| Bitcoin | 78,547.01 | -0.72% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Year-over-Year | 23.90 | 25 | 25 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 27.50 | 30 | 28.20 |
| Trade Balance | 112,500m | 119,100m | 119,100m |
China Exports YoY | Type: macro_line | Exports YoY %: 25.39 (2026-06-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(5pt): 28.5,-7.732,0.4113,7.56,25.39
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 0.50 | 0.80 | 17:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.30 | 17:30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 3.50 | 3.70 | 17:30 |
- China August exports rose 25% YoY and trade surplus reached $119.1 billion, both matching consensus.
- Shanghai Composite advanced 0.20% while Hang Seng declined 0.93% and TAIEX gained 1.67%.
- Attention turns to today’s China CPI and PPI releases at 17:30 ET.
Yesterday's Recap
China’s August trade data confirmed solid external momentum. Exports grew 25.0% year-over-year, exactly in line with consensus and above the prior 23.9% pace. Imports increased 28.2% against a 30% forecast, while the trade balance printed at the expected $119.1 billion.
Mainland equities responded positively, with the Shanghai Composite closing at 3,940.55, up 0.20%, and the CSI 300 rising 0.23% to 4,558.74. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.93% to 25,413.12 despite the data, while Taiwan’s TAIEX surged 1.67% to 47,326.27. USD/CNY held steady at 6.71 and USD/HKD at 7.84.
Copper climbed 2.66% to 6.77 and Brent crude rose 3.17% to 99.33, reflecting stronger China demand signals. The prints supported mainland indices even as Hong Kong lagged.
The Day Ahead
China will release August CPI and PPI figures at 17:30 ET, with consensus pointing to CPI YoY rising to 0.8% from 0.5%. The prints will shape expectations for any near-term PBoC easing. The 26th China International Fair for Investment and Trade opens in Xiamen and runs through September 11.
No PBoC MLF or reverse-repo operations are scheduled. HKMA and CBC calendars remain quiet, with markets focused on any follow-through from the trade print into risk assets. Copper and Brent gains may extend if the data reinforce demand signals.
Other Economic Notes
China’s 25% export surge in August will feature prominently in upcoming Trump-Xi discussions on trade rebalancing. Domestic tourism continues expanding and offers a rare bright spot even as some foreign visitors spend cautiously. Goldman Sachs estimates recent property-sales reforms will cut local-government land revenues by around 30%, adding pressure to already strained fiscal positions.
China resumed limited sulfuric-acid exports, providing modest relief to copper smelters facing global shortages. These developments underscore the uneven recovery across external and domestic sectors.
Global Macro News
China’s strong August exports arrive weeks before Xi Jinping’s planned meeting with President Trump, raising the stakes for any new tariff or rebalancing talks. Chile’s central bank held its policy rate steady amid Middle East risks and weak domestic growth, illustrating the cautious global policy backdrop. ↓ p.2
