Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Inflation Matches View as Stocks Fall
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,934.40 | -0.43% |
| CSI 300 | 4,548.39 | -0.53% |
| Hang Seng | 25,274.96 | -0.17% |
| TAIEX | 47,183.36 | +0.16% |
| USD/CNY | 6.71 | -0.07% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | -0.00% |
| Copper | 6.53 | -4.08% |
| Brent Crude | 108.95 | +7.65% |
| Gold | 4,358.50 | -1.30% |
| Bitcoin | 77,079.72 | -1.51% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
China Exports YoY | Type: macro_line | Exports YoY %: 25.39 (2026-06-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(5pt): 28.5,-7.732,0.4113,7.56,25.39
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| House Price Index Year-over-Year | -3.20 | - | 21:30 |
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 4.50 | 4.80 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 0.60 | 0.80 | 22:00 |
| Fixed Asset Investment (Year-to-Date) Year-over-Year | -6.70 | -7.10 | 22:00 |
- China August CPI rose 0.8% YoY, matching consensus and lifting from 0.5% prior, while PPI edged to 3.8%.
- Mainland equities fell with Shanghai Composite down 0.43% and CSI 300 off 0.53%; USD/CNY held near 6.71.
- Brent crude jumped 7.65% on geopolitical supply risks as Sinopec flagged 600k b/d China oil demand drop in 2026.
Yesterday's Recap
China’s August inflation data released on September 8 showed CPI YoY at 0.8%, in line with consensus and up from the prior 0.5%, while MoM inflation reached 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. PPI YoY climbed to 3.8%, slightly above the 3.7% forecast. These prints confirmed stable but subdued price pressures across mainland China.
Shanghai Composite closed at 3,934.40, down 0.43%, and CSI 300 fell 0.53% to 4,548.39. Hang Seng declined 0.17% to 25,274.96 while TAIEX rose 0.16% to 47,183.36. USD/CNY settled at 6.71 after the PBoC fixing near 6.7167.
Copper dropped 4.08% to 6.53 on softer demand signals, and Brent surged 7.65% to 108.95 amid supply concerns. The data leave the PBoC with continued room to maintain accommodative policy settings.
The Day Ahead
Attention centers on mainland China’s September 14 releases at 21:30-22:00 ET, including House Price Index YoY, Industrial Production YoY, Retail Sales YoY, and Fixed Asset Investment YTD YoY. These prints will clarify momentum in property and consumption after the steady inflation outcome. No PBoC liquidity operations or rate signals are scheduled for September 10-11.
HKMA is expected to maintain the USD/HKD peg through routine aggregate balance adjustments. CBC faces no policy meetings this week, though Taiwan semiconductor export trends remain a watch item. Markets will also monitor any follow-through from the PBoC reference rate setting near 6.7167.
Other Economic Notes
Sinopec’s research arm projected China oil demand will fall 600,000 barrels per day in 2026 due to the US-Iran conflict and faster EV adoption, pressuring independent refiners facing elevated Brent prices. Vale is exploring a possible debut issuance in China’s bond market later this year. Bangladesh and Hong Kong signed an Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement to expand bilateral flows.
These developments highlight shifting energy demand and cross-border investment patterns affecting mainland China and Hong Kong. Taiwan Semiconductor’s September revenue surge of 53% underscores resilient export momentum supporting the TAIEX.
