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Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

October 28, 2026 robomacro.com

China Equities Diverge Ahead of PMI Releases

Shanghai Composite3,678.05-0.53%
CSI 3004,049.55-1.36%
Hang Seng23,211.81+0.51%
TAIEX46,041.43-1.81%

Market Snapshot

AssetLevelChange
Shanghai Composite3,678.05-0.53%
CSI 3004,049.55-1.36%
Hang Seng23,211.81+0.51%
TAIEX46,041.43-1.81%
USD/CNY6.67-0.19%
USD/HKD7.84+0.02%
Copper6.66+2.35%
Brent Crude109.74-5.24%
Gold4,073.10+0.86%
Bitcoin80,743.29+0.92%
China 2Y Govt Yield--
China 10Y Govt Yield--

Prior Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Actual
No events available
Foreign Exchange ReservesForeign Exchange Reserves | Type: macro_line | Foreign Exchange Reserves: 32.54 (2026-10-23) | Range: 27.52–33.21 | Trend(6pt): 27.78,30.05,32.58,29.34,32.42,32.54

Today's Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Time
NBS Manufacturing PMI50.1050.1021:30
NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI50.2050.5021:30
  • CSI 300 fell 1.36% while Hang Seng rose 0.51% as investors positioned ahead of October PMI releases.
  • HKMA designated 12 primary liquidity providers and expanded the yuan repo facility to 22 billion yuan.
  • Copper gained 2.35% on signs of resilient China demand despite broader equity weakness.

Yesterday's Recap

Mainland China equities declined sharply with the CSI 300 dropping 1.36% to 4,049.55 and the Shanghai Composite easing 0.53% to 3,678.05. Taiwan’s TAIEX fell 1.81% to 46,041.43 amid semiconductor supply-chain concerns. Hong Kong bucked the trend as the Hang Seng advanced 0.51% to 23,211.81.

The USD/CNY rate declined 0.19% to 6.67, reflecting modest yuan support. Copper rose 2.35% to 6.66 as traders weighed China demand strength against AI-related weakness elsewhere. Brent crude dropped 5.24% to 109.74 while gold climbed 0.86% to 4,073.10.

No major data releases occurred across Greater China on October 26. State-backed ETF inflows reached the highest level since the April 2025 rout, signaling continued official efforts to stabilize mainland equities. Morgan Stanley highlighted further downside risk for Chinese stocks given softening consumption momentum.

Property-sector refinancing activity remains elevated, with Gaw Capital seeking to roll over a HK$14.4 billion facility. Cross-strait semiconductor linkages continue to influence Taiwan equity performance amid global AI demand fluctuations.

The Day Ahead

Markets will focus on the NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release on October 30. Both prints carry high market impact and will provide fresh readings on mainland China activity after the August CPI figure of 0.80% YoY. Analysts expect the manufacturing gauge to hold near 50.1 while the non-manufacturing index is projected at 50.5.

Any material deviation could shift expectations for PBoC liquidity operations in November. Equity and commodity traders will also monitor follow-through from the HKMA’s yuan repo expansion. Copper prices steadied as investors balanced AI-stock weakness against China demand signals.

The US Export-Import Bank reauthorization debate intensified, with lawmakers citing the need to counter China’s global energy financing reach. An EU-China agreement on hybrid-vehicle exports eased some trade tensions but offered limited relief to European automakers. South Korea’s Q3 GDP beat forecasts on semiconductor exports, underscoring regional supply-chain linkages to Taiwan.

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Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

October 28, 2026 robomacro.com
Gold Reserves Gold Reserves | Type: macro_line | Gold Reserves: 32.54 (2026-10-23) | Range: 27.52–33.21 | Trend(6pt): 27.78,30.05,32.58,29.34,32.42,32.54
General Government Expenditure YoY General Government Expenditure YoY | Type: macro_line | General Government Expenditure YoY: 33.91 (2030-01-01) | Range: 32.64–33.91 | Trend(5pt): 32.64,32.95,33.77,33.71,33.91
Fiscal Balance Fiscal Balance | Type: macro_line | Fiscal Balance: 0.717 (2030-01-01) | Range: -6.575–0.717 | Trend(5pt): -6.575,-6.053,-3.226,-0.323,0.717
Shanghai Composite Index Shanghai Composite Index | Type: market_hloc | Price: 3698 (2026-10-26) | Range: 3658–3990 | Trend(5pt): 3858,3983,3933,3830,3698

The Day Ahead (continued)

Broader Asian currencies faced pressure from AI and oil-price volatility. The US-China trade truce continues to shape capital-flow expectations across Greater China.

Other Economic Notes

State-backed ETF inflows reached the highest level since the April 2025 rout, signaling continued official efforts to stabilize mainland equities. Morgan Stanley highlighted further downside risk for Chinese stocks given softening consumption momentum. Property-sector refinancing activity remains elevated, with Gaw Capital seeking to roll over a HK$14.4 billion facility.

Cross-strait semiconductor linkages continue to influence Taiwan equity performance amid global AI demand fluctuations. The HKMA designated 12 primary liquidity providers and lifted the offshore yuan repo facility to 22 billion yuan to deepen RMB market-making capacity. Deutsche Bank was among the newly appointed providers for Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market.

The PBoC maintained its focus on liquidity operations without fresh MLF or RRR signals in the latest window. No rate decision emerged from the CBC, though Taiwan’s central bank continues to monitor semiconductor export performance for policy calibration. The HKMA separately warned the public about fraudulent e-HKD loan schemes misusing its name.

Aggregate balance data showed no material shift in the USD/HKD peg mechanics.

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Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

October 28, 2026 robomacro.com

Continuation

Global Macro News

Copper prices steadied as investors balanced AI-stock weakness against China demand signals. The US Export-Import Bank reauthorization debate intensified, with lawmakers citing the need to counter China’s global energy financing reach. An EU-China agreement on hybrid-vehicle exports eased some trade tensions but offered limited relief to European automakers.

South Korea’s Q3 GDP beat forecasts on semiconductor exports, underscoring regional supply-chain linkages to Taiwan. Broader Asian currencies faced pressure from AI and oil-price volatility. The US-China trade truce continues to shape capital-flow expectations across Greater China.

HKMA warnings on fraudulent e-HKD schemes highlight ongoing vigilance in offshore RMB markets. Gaw Capital’s refinancing push reflects sustained property-sector liquidity needs amid equity volatility.

Greater China Central Banks Watch

The HKMA designated 12 primary liquidity providers and lifted the offshore yuan repo facility to 22 billion yuan to deepen RMB market-making capacity. Deutsche Bank was among the newly appointed providers for Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market. The PBoC maintained its focus on liquidity operations without fresh MLF or RRR signals in the latest window.

No rate decision emerged from the CBC, though Taiwan’s central bank continues to monitor semiconductor export performance for policy calibration. The HKMA separately warned the public about fraudulent e-HKD loan schemes misusing its name. Aggregate balance data showed no material shift in the USD/HKD peg mechanics.

Sponsored by Arbitrage Search
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