Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Trade Surplus Narrows as Imports Surge; PBoC Signals Patience
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,659.68 | -0.57% |
| CSI 300 | 4,043.93 | -0.78% |
| Hang Seng | 24,315.92 | -0.98% |
| TAIEX | 44,257.15 | +3.62% |
| USD/CNY | 6.67 | -0.01% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | -0.01% |
| Copper | 6.20 | -1.27% |
| Brent Crude | 95.77 | +3.24% |
| Gold | 3,880.70 | -2.99% |
| Bitcoin | 71,392.29 | -3.48% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Year-over-Year | 36.30 | 33.50 | 35.20 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 31 | 32 | 41.60 |
| Trade Balance | 133,530m | 125,800m | 105,280m |
CSI 300 Index | Type: macro_line | CSI 300 Index: 4044 (2026-11-12) | Range: 3159–5084 | Trend(5pt): 4882,4137,3503,3874,4044
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-11-13) | |||
| Current Account Prel | 193,700m | - | 04:00 |
- China's November trade surplus narrowed to $105.28bn, well below the $125.8bn consensus, as imports surged 41.6% YoY versus 32% expected while exports rose 35.2% YoY, above the 33.5% consensus but below the 36.3% prior.
- The PBoC's Q3 monetary policy report vows ample liquidity and yuan stability but hints at a pause in the easing cycle, with the USD/CNY reference rate fixed at 6.7191 versus 6.7167 previously.
- Mainland equities softened (CSI 300 -0.78%, Shanghai Composite -0.57%) and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.98%, while Taiwan's TAIEX surged 3.62% on AI-driven semiconductor optimism.
Yesterday's Recap
China's November trade data dominated the session, with exports rising 35.2% YoY (consensus 33.5%, previous 36.3%) and imports surging 41.6% YoY against a 32% consensus and 31% prior — a striking import acceleration that points to resilient domestic demand and front-loaded commodity purchases. The trade surplus narrowed sharply to $105.28bn versus the $125.8bn consensus and $133.53bn prior, a compression that should ease some external rebalancing pressure ahead of the Trump-Xi talks. Mainland equities reacted defensively, with the CSI 300 down 0.78% to 4,043.93 and the Shanghai Composite off 0.57% to 3,659.68, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.98% to 24,315.92.
Taiwan was the standout, with the TAIEX surging 3.62% to 44,257.15 on continued AI and semiconductor demand optimism. The yuan was essentially flat, USD/CNY at 6.67 (-0.01%), and USD/HKD held at 7.84 (-0.01%) near the strong side of the peg band. Commodities diverged sharply: Brent crude jumped 3.24% to $95.77 while copper fell 1.27% to $6.20, gold slid 2.99% to $3,880.70 and Bitcoin dropped 3.48% to $71,392.29.
The Day Ahead
The calendar is light, with China's preliminary current account for Q3 due Friday at 04:00 ET (previous $193.7bn), the only scheduled Greater China release and one without a consensus estimate. With no tier-one data on the docket, markets will likely trade on the PBoC's Q3 policy report language and follow-through from the trade print. Hong Kong flows warrant monitoring after the HKMA's successful 3-year RMB sovereign bond tender, which drew a 7.37 bid-to-cover ratio on RMB1.5bn issued against RMB5.335bn in applications — a strong signal of offshore RMB demand.
Taiwan's TAIEX momentum and semiconductor supply-chain headlines remain the key regional swing factor. Attention also turns to the upcoming Trump-Xi talks, with Treasury Secretary Bessent's call for "more balanced" trade framing the backdrop.
Other Economic Notes
The import surge of 41.6% YoY is the most consequential detail in the trade release, suggesting domestic absorption is strengthening even as the surplus compresses — a combination that complicates the external-balance narrative Washington has pressed. ↓ p.2
