India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Forex Reserves Rise as PMI Hits Four-Year Low
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,767.45 | -0.43% |
| Sensex | 76,059.77 | -0.43% |
| USD/INR | 96.55 | -0.34% |
| EUR/INR | 109.74 | -0.05% |
| Reliance | 1,278.00 | +0.46% |
| HDFC Bank | 742.80 | -0.60% |
| Brent Crude | 91.38 | -5.58% |
| Gold | 4,109.40 | +1.03% |
| Bitcoin | 65,130.79 | +1.27% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
India Industrial Production YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY %: 4.916 (2026-04-01) | Range: -3.835–19.33 | Trend(5pt): 13.02,-3.835,4.455,7.621,4.916
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-07-28) | |||
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 5.10 | - | 06:30 |
| Manufacturing Production Year-over-Year | 5.50 | - | 06:30 |
- India's forex reserves rose $1.08 billion to $676.24 billion last week.
- HSBC Flash PMI showed private sector growth slowing to a four-year low in July.
- Rupee firmed with USD/INR down 0.34 percent while Brent crude fell sharply.
Yesterday's Recap
Indian equity benchmarks closed lower on 25 July with Nifty 50 at 23,767.45, down 0.43 percent, and Sensex at 76,059.77, also off 0.43 percent. Reliance gained 0.46 percent to 1,278 while HDFC Bank declined 0.60 percent to 742.80. USD/INR eased 0.34 percent to 96.55, reflecting reduced pressure on the currency.
Brent crude dropped 5.58 percent to 91.38 amid softer global demand signals, and gold advanced 1.03 percent to 4,109.40 as a safe-haven bid emerged. India's forex reserves increased $1.08 billion to $676.24 billion, supported by RBI interventions and steady inflows. News highlighted $15 billion in rupee-settled payments for Russian oil imports over three months, underscoring growing non-dollar trade.
No major data releases occurred on the day.
The Day Ahead
Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production year-over-year figures are scheduled for release on 28 July at 06:30 ET, both carrying medium market impact. These prints will provide the first detailed look at June factory activity following the weak July PMI reading. Traders will also monitor any updates to RBI's weekly statistical supplement for liquidity signals.
Equity and currency markets are expected to react to the production data, with a downside surprise likely to reinforce expectations for policy support. No MPC minutes or governor speeches are listed. Global oil price moves will remain a key external driver for rupee sentiment.
Other Economic Notes
RBI and government measures are viewed by HDFC as capable of shifting India's balance of payments into surplus and easing rupee pressure. Cumulative FCNR(B) inflows have already crossed $32 billion, adding to reserves and providing a buffer against external shocks. Russian oil purchases have driven a sharp rise in rupee-denominated trade settlements, reducing dollar demand for energy imports.
Karnataka's chief minister highlighted the state's growth as a driver of national expansion, pointing to sustained momentum in southern states. These developments collectively support a constructive medium-term outlook for external accounts despite near-term growth concerns.
