India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBI Holds as Oil Rises, Nifty Slips
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,570.65 | -0.27% |
| Sensex | 78,499.17 | -0.58% |
| USD/INR | 95.20 | -0.12% |
| EUR/INR | 110.02 | +0.40% |
| Reliance | 1,334.80 | +0.74% |
| HDFC Bank | 731.00 | -0.45% |
| Brent Crude | 84.41 | +1.03% |
| Gold | 4,402.70 | +1.43% |
| Bitcoin | 64,944.63 | +0.06% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
India Policy Rate vs CPI | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate %: 5.5 (2026-05-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,6.15,6.75,6.5,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-08-12) | |||
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.38 | 4.54 | 06:30 |
- RBI keeps repo rate at 5.25% with neutral stance and upgrades FY27 growth outlook
- August CPI YoY due 12 August at consensus 4.54% versus prior 4.38%
- Nifty falls 0.27% to 24,570.65 while Brent climbs 1.03% to $84.41
Yesterday's Recap
Indian equity benchmarks closed lower with Nifty 50 at 24,570.65, down 0.27%, and Sensex at 78,499.17, down 0.58%. Banking stocks including HDFC Bank declined 0.45% while Reliance gained 0.74%. The rupee strengthened modestly as USD/INR fell 0.12% to 95.20.
Brent crude rose 1.03% to 84.41 amid supply concerns, lifting gold 1.43% to 4,402.70. No major data releases occurred on 8 August. Short-term rates stayed at 5.50%.
Equity turnover remained subdued as investors positioned ahead of the August inflation print. India’s merchant shipping officer numbers surpassed China’s, reaching 140,718 versus 110,893, supporting services export resilience.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the 12 August CPI release, with consensus at 4.54% YoY after June’s 4.38% reading. The print carries medium impact and will shape expectations for RBI policy through year-end. No other domestic data or MPC speeches are scheduled for the immediate session.
Global cues will hinge on US Treasury moves following the surprise July jobs contraction. Traders will also monitor Brent crude for any further spikes that could feed into imported inflation. IT services export growth of 5.8% year-over-year in the latest quarter, aided by AI contracts, offers additional support for the growth outlook.
Other Economic Notes
The RBI’s decision to raise its FY27 growth forecast while trimming the inflation outlook signals confidence that domestic demand remains resilient. IT services exports expanded in the latest quarter, supported by AI-related contracts that offset slower traditional outsourcing. Monsoon rainfall running above normal has improved kharif sowing prospects and reduced near-term food-price risks.
FDI inflows stayed concentrated in manufacturing, reinforcing the government’s production-linked incentive push. These factors collectively support the central bank’s view that growth can absorb moderate oil-price pressure without derailing the 6% trajectory. Infrastructure spending reached ₹1.2 lakh crore in July, further underpinning domestic demand.
