India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBI Holds Steady as CPI Print Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,583.80 | +0.05% |
| Sensex | 78,542.44 | +0.06% |
| USD/INR | 95.43 | +0.03% |
| EUR/INR | 110.17 | +0.21% |
| Reliance | 1,323.90 | -0.26% |
| HDFC Bank | 729.00 | -0.27% |
| Brent Crude | 89.38 | +1.89% |
| Gold | 4,439.60 | +1.78% |
| Bitcoin | 63,619.47 | -0.46% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
India Short-term Rate vs CPI | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate %: 5.5 (2026-05-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,6.15,6.75,6.5,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-08-12) | |||
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.38 | 4.50 | 02:30 |
- Nifty and Sensex post modest gains ahead of inflation data.
- RBI keeps repo rate at 5.25% with neutral stance intact.
- Brent crude rises sharply while rupee edges weaker.
Yesterday's Recap
Indian equities closed little changed as investors positioned ahead of the August 12 CPI release. Nifty 50 rose 0.05% to 24,583.80 while Sensex added 0.06% to 78,542.44 on selective buying in banks and IT. USD/INR ticked up 0.03% to 95.43, reflecting mild dollar demand.
Brent crude jumped 1.89% to 89.38 amid supply concerns, lifting gold 1.78% to 4,439.60. Reliance and HDFC Bank each slipped about 0.26% as Q1 earnings season continued. Short-term rates stayed at 5.50% with no liquidity signal from the central bank.
Broader market breadth remained mixed as foreign portfolio flows stayed light. Q1 results showed resilient revenue in autos and consumer goods even as input costs pressured margins, while banking balance sheets stayed healthy enough for brokerages to lift SBI targets.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the July CPI print due at 02:30 ET, with consensus at 4.5% versus the prior 4.38%. A reading near 4.5% would keep the RBI’s inflation-targeting credibility intact while leaving room for the neutral policy stance. Traders will also monitor weekly FPI data and any comments from RBI officials on liquidity management.
Global risk sentiment could shift after US inflation prints and FOMC minutes later in the week. Equity opening is expected to stay range-bound around 24,500-24,700 until the CPI outcome clarifies rate-cut odds for December. Infrastructure clearances and monsoon-driven rural demand indicators remain supportive of the FY27 growth outlook.
Other Economic Notes
Q1 earnings showed resilient revenue growth in autos and consumer goods despite higher input costs squeezing margins. Banking sector balance sheets remained healthy, supporting brokerages’ upward revisions to SBI targets. Infrastructure project clearances accelerated, adding to the government’s FY27 growth optimism.
Rural demand indicators improved with monsoon rainfall 4% above normal and kharif sowing ahead of last year’s pace. FDI inflows reached solid levels in June, concentrated in services and manufacturing. IT services firms reported stable deal pipelines ahead of results, guiding for 5-7% FY27 revenue growth.
