India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Rises to 4.45% as Equities Slip
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,435.95 | -0.15% |
| Sensex | 77,966.35 | -0.24% |
| USD/INR | 95.34 | -0.04% |
| EUR/INR | 109.82 | -0.23% |
| Reliance | 1,317.00 | -0.90% |
| HDFC Bank | 725.00 | -0.55% |
| Brent Crude | 87.03 | -2.19% |
| Gold | 4,404.50 | -0.10% |
| Bitcoin | 63,357.33 | -0.07% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.38 | 4.50 | 4.45 |
India Short-term Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 5.5 (2026-05-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,6.15,6.75,6.5,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- July CPI rose 4.45% YoY, below 4.5% consensus but above prior 4.38%.
- Nifty 50 fell 0.15% to 24,435.95 while Sensex declined 0.24%.
- RBI held repo rate at 5.25% with neutral stance and upgraded FY27 growth outlook.
Yesterday's Recap
July inflation printed at 4.45% YoY, edging past the prior 4.38% reading yet missing the 4.5% consensus. Equity benchmarks closed lower as Nifty 50 lost 0.15% to 24,435.95 and Sensex dropped 0.24% to 77,966.35 amid Middle East tensions and softer global cues. Brent crude fell 2.19% to 87.03 while USD/INR eased 0.04% to 95.34.
Reliance Industries declined 0.90% and HDFC Bank slipped 0.55%, weighing on the indices. News flow highlighted Chinese automakers’ expansion potentially benefiting Indian suppliers and government reluctance to intervene in Tata Sons leadership changes. Short-term rates stayed at 5.50% with no movement in the long-term yield curve.
Monsoon session in Parliament saw opposition protests over NEET and FCRA bill referral to JPC.
The Day Ahead
No scheduled data releases appear on the calendar for 13 or 14 August. Traders will monitor follow-through from yesterday’s CPI print and any commentary on food-price persistence. Global oil movements and US Treasury yields remain key external drivers for rupee and bond markets.
Equity sentiment may hinge on foreign institutional flows and updates from the ongoing monsoon session in Parliament. Corporate results from select mid-cap names could add micro-level color without shifting the macro narrative. Southwest monsoon tracking 2% above normal continues to support Kharif sowing and rural demand.
Other Economic Notes
FDI inflows reached $9.8 bn in June, concentrated in manufacturing and renewables, signaling sustained long-term capital interest. IT services exports grew 7.2% in Q1 FY27, with major firms guiding for 5–7% USD revenue expansion. Infrastructure clearances worth ₹1.2 trn for roads and rail underscore the government’s capex push.
PSU non-banks have slowed offshore borrowing as the cost advantage from RBI’s hedging window narrows against higher US yields. Mortgage and refinance rates moved higher amid the global yield environment.
Global Macro News
Softer US CPI data lifted global risk appetite and reduced pressure on emerging-market currencies. The Federal Reserve’s potential shift toward less forward guidance could amplify volatility for Indian assets. <i>↓ p.2</i>
