India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Forex Swells to Record High as RBI Ends Swap Scheme
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,252.00 | +0.08% |
| Sensex | 77,540.83 | +0.00% |
| USD/INR | 95.70 | -0.08% |
| EUR/INR | 111.70 | +0.04% |
| Reliance | 1,316.00 | +0.21% |
| HDFC Bank | 726.95 | +0.26% |
| Brent Crude | 92.09 | -2.44% |
| Gold | 4,738.40 | +2.47% |
| Bitcoin | 78,771.66 | +1.31% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
India Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | %: 5.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,6.15,6.75,6.5,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-08-28) | |||
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 7.30 | 6.20 | 06:30 |
| Manufacturing Production Year-over-Year | 7.80 | - | 06:30 |
| Monday (2026-08-31) | |||
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 7.80 | - | 06:30 |
- Forex reserves climb $9.9 billion to $716.9 billion after RBI swap inflows near $73 billion
- Nifty 50 rises 0.08% to 24,252 while USD/INR eases 0.08% to 95.70 on RBI support
- Industrial production data due 28 August with consensus 6.2% y/y after 7.3% prior
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets closed little changed with Nifty 50 at 24,252.00, up 0.08%, and Sensex at 77,540.83, flat. USD/INR finished at 95.70 after declining 0.08% as the central bank intervened to counter safe-haven dollar demand. Brent crude fell 2.44% to 92.09 while gold jumped 2.47% to 4,738.40 on risk-off flows.
RBI ended its foreign currency swap scheme ahead of schedule, drawing inflows near $73 billion yet leaving the rupee range-bound. Forex reserves expanded $9.9 billion to a record $716.9 billion, underscoring external buffers. India expanded rupee-based export rules to facilitate trade settlements in local currency.
The market regulator barred a JPMorgan Mauritius entity from securities trading over alleged closing-auction manipulation. Reliance rose 0.21% to 1,316 and HDFC Bank gained 0.26% to 726.95. EUR/INR edged up 0.04% to 111.70.
India short-term rate held at 5.50%. News flow highlighted policy support for rupee invoicing alongside regulatory actions that kept sentiment measured.
The Day Ahead
Industrial production and manufacturing output figures release on 28 August with consensus calling for 6.2% y/y growth after 7.3% previously. GDP data follow on 31 August and will shape views on the 7.8% prior pace. Traders will monitor oil price moves and any further RBI liquidity operations ahead of the releases.
Rupee settlement policy updates may generate additional corporate hedging flows. Equity sentiment hinges on value buying in banking and energy names after recent consolidation. No data prints are scheduled for 25 August, leaving markets to digest geopolitical headlines and oil volatility.
Focus remains on whether softer crude prices can offset imported inflation risks before the next round of high-frequency indicators.
Other Economic Notes
India received 29 FDI proposals worth 48.95 billion rupees under the automatic route for neighbouring-country investors. <i>↓ p.2</i>
