India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
India GDP Beats Forecasts as Rupee Hits 2-Month High
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,080.40 | -0.04% |
| Sensex | 76,957.27 | +0.03% |
| USD/INR | 94.94 | -0.18% |
| EUR/INR | 110.04 | -0.40% |
| Reliance | 1,309.00 | +2.51% |
| HDFC Bank | 711.90 | +0.41% |
| Brent Crude | 95.39 | +5.41% |
| Gold | 4,372.30 | -1.33% |
| Bitcoin | 77,196.90 | -1.72% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 7.80 | 7.10 | 7.80 |
| Current Account Balance | 7,100m | - | -4,200m |
India Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 5.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,6.43,6.75,6.312,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- India Q1 GDP grew 7.8% YoY, beating consensus of 7.1%.
- Current account swung to $4.2 bn deficit from prior surplus.
- Rupee strengthened to two-month high on RBI intervention and flows.
Yesterday's Recap
India reported Q1 FY27 GDP growth of 7.8% YoY, matching the previous quarter and exceeding the 7.1% consensus, driven by services and investment. The print came in above RBI expectations and supported views of sustained momentum. The current account balance shifted to a $4.2 bn deficit in April-June from a $7.1 bn surplus a year earlier, reflecting higher commodity imports.
Equity markets closed mixed, with Nifty 50 down 0.04% at 24,080.40 and Sensex up 0.03% at 76,957.27. The rupee advanced 0.18% to 94.94 against the dollar, reaching a near four-week high amid equity inflows and RBI support. Brent crude rose 5.41% to 95.39, while Reliance gained 2.51%.
Gold fell 1.33% and Bitcoin declined 1.72%. IT services exports grew 7.2% YoY in the quarter, supported by BFSI and healthcare deal wins. Central capex rose 18% YoY through July, while FDI inflows reached $4.8 bn, concentrated in services and software.
Above-average monsoon rainfall improved kharif sowing prospects and reduced near-term food inflation risks.
The Day Ahead
No major Indian data releases are scheduled for today or tomorrow. Markets will monitor global cues, including any updates on US-Iran tensions that could affect oil prices and risk sentiment. Equity investors may watch corporate news, with merger activity in IT services providing selective support.
The rupee is expected to hold recent gains if RBI continues measured intervention. Bond yields could see limited movement absent fresh inflation or liquidity signals. Traders will also track FII flows for direction in Nifty and Sensex.
Resilient Q1 GDP and robust corporate earnings continue to underpin equity valuations despite global headwinds.
Other Economic Notes
Resilient Q1 GDP and robust corporate earnings continue to underpin equity valuations despite global headwinds. IT services exports expanded 7.2% YoY in the quarter, aided by BFSI and healthcare deal wins. Central capex rose 18% YoY through July, while FDI inflows reached $4.8 bn, concentrated in services and software.
Above-average monsoon rainfall has improved kharif sowing prospects and reduced near-term food inflation risks. <i>↓ p.2</i>
