India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Forex Inflows Lift Rupee to 10-Week High
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,914.45 | -0.59% |
| Sensex | 76,570.35 | -0.49% |
| USD/INR | 94.47 | -0.01% |
| EUR/INR | 109.91 | -0.04% |
| Reliance | 1,302.50 | -0.81% |
| HDFC Bank | 706.65 | +0.83% |
| Brent Crude | 95.52 | -0.12% |
| Gold | 4,527.80 | +3.70% |
| Bitcoin | 81,067.26 | +4.87% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 7.80 | 7.10 | 7.80 |
| Current Account Balance | 7,100m | - | -4,200m |
India Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 5.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,6.43,6.75,6.312,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- GDP growth holds at 7.8% YoY, beating 7.1% consensus.
- Current account swings to $4.2 bn deficit from prior surplus.
- RBI FCNR(B) inflows reach $136 bn, boosting reserves and rupee.
Yesterday's Recap
Equity benchmarks closed lower on 2 September, with Nifty 50 falling 0.59% to 23,914.45 and Sensex declining 0.49% to 76,570.35. Reliance Industries dropped 0.81% while HDFC Bank gained 0.83%. GDP growth printed at 7.8% YoY, matching the prior reading and exceeding the 7.1% consensus, which underscored resilient domestic demand.
The current account balance shifted to a $4.2 bn deficit from a $7.1 bn surplus. RBI swap facilities and NRI deposits under the FCNR(B) scheme delivered over $136 bn in forex inflows, lifting reserves to record levels and supporting the rupee at a 10-week high near 94.48. USD/INR closed at 94.47, little changed on the day.
Services PMI expanded in August yet registered its weakest pace in four years amid softer new business and heightened competition.
The Day Ahead
No high-impact data releases are scheduled for 3 September, leaving markets without fresh domestic catalysts. Traders will monitor global equity and commodity moves for direction, particularly Brent crude near $95.50 and gold’s advance above $4,500. The rupee is expected to hold recent gains as RBI liquidity tools remain active.
Banking stocks may continue to benefit from the large FCNR(B) deposit inflows that strengthen lender balance sheets. Equity volumes could stay moderate ahead of any potential global risk shifts later in the week. Bilateral trade frictions with Bangladesh surfaced but carry limited immediate market impact given the $12.75 bn annual trade volume.
Other Economic Notes
Japan’s JCR upgraded India’s sovereign rating to A- from BBB+, citing sustained growth and reform momentum. The combination of solid GDP and external deficit widening leaves the external balance as a key watchpoint for policymakers. Equity sector rotation favored banks on the back of the forex deposit surge.
Persistent oil prices above $95 keep the current account under scrutiny despite robust capital inflows. The rupee’s move to a 10-week high near 94.48 reflects the effectiveness of these capital-raising measures in blunting importer dollar demand.
Global Macro News
Brent crude held steady near $95.52, limiting imported inflation pressure for India’s energy bill. <i>↓ p.2</i>
