Won Firms on Export Outlook, Intervention

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Won Firms on Export Outlook, Intervention

79 Business Confidence

KOSPI6,870.81-0.27%

KOSDAQ849.80+0.38%

USD/KRW1,356.19-0.25%

Samsung268,500.00-1.47%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
KOSPI	6,870.81	-0.27%
KOSDAQ	849.80	+0.38%
USD/KRW	1,356.19	-0.25%
Samsung	268,500.00	-1.47%
SK Hynix	1,776,000.00	+0.62%
Brent Crude	97.94	-4.53%
Gold	4,190.70	+0.26%
Bitcoin	83,696.25	+0.09%
Korea 3Y Govt Yield	4.08%	-4 bp
Korea 10Y Govt Yield	4.48%	+9 bp

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
Business Confidence Index	81	-	79

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Exports Year-over-Year	68.70	61.70	16:00
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index	52.30	-	16:30

Thursday (2026-10-01)
Inflation Rate Year-over-Year	3.10	2.90	15:00

Business confidence falls to 79 from 81 as export data loom
Won strengthens 0.25% to 1,356.19 amid $23 billion intervention
KOSPI drops 0.27% to 6,870.81 while 10-year yield rises 9 bp

Yesterday's Recap

South Korea’s Business Confidence Index declined to 79 in September from 81 the prior month, signaling softer domestic sentiment amid ongoing external pressures. Markets digested reports that the Bank of Korea sold a net $9.612 billion in the second quarter to support the won, with total intervention spending reaching $23 billion year-to-date. The Korean won rose 0.25% to 1,356.19 on dollar selling and an improved export outlook, while KOSPI fell 0.27% to 6,870.81 and KOSDAQ gained 0.38% to 849.80.

Samsung Electronics declined 1.47% to 268,500 won, offsetting a 0.62% gain in SK Hynix to 1,776,000 won. The Korea 3-year government yield eased 4 bp to 4.08% while the 10-year yield climbed 9 bp to 4.48%, reflecting divergent rate expectations. Brent crude dropped 4.53% to 97.94, and gold edged 0.26% higher to 4,190.70.

Fiscal, monetary and financial authorities agreed to emergency bond buybacks should yields surge sharply, underscoring coordinated efforts to stabilize borrowing costs.

The Day Ahead

South Korea will release September exports year-over-year at 16:00 ET, with consensus at 61.7% versus 68.7% previously, providing a direct read on semiconductor and manufacturing demand. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for September follows at 16:30 ET, following 52.3 in August. Thursday’s inflation rate year-over-year print at 15:00 ET carries the highest market sensitivity, with consensus at 2.9% against 3.1% prior; the outcome will shape expectations ahead of the October MPC meeting.

Stablecoin legislation developments and any further FSC-Bank of Korea coordination on the interagency consultative body may also surface. Traders will monitor USD/KRW reaction to the export figure for signs of sustained intervention support.

Other Economic Notes

Authorities signaled readiness for emergency government bond purchases to ease pressure on borrowers as yields climb, highlighting fiscal-monetary coordination. The FSC is advancing won-stablecoin rules that will formally include Bank of Korea participation through a joint consultative body, aiming to manage financial stability risks. KOSPI remains on track for its steepest quarterly decline since 2020 despite the won’s recent firming.

↓ p.2

Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

Export-driven growth continues to anchor policy focus, with semiconductor names SK Hynix and Samsung showing divergent daily moves amid global chip demand uncertainty. The softer business confidence reading adds to evidence of moderating domestic momentum.

Global Macro News

Global rate paths echoing earlier Covid-era tightening cycles are prompting renewed scrutiny of South Korea’s policy space, with some observers questioning whether the base rate could reach 3.5%. Brent’s sharp 4.53% decline reduces imported inflation risks for Korea’s energy-intensive economy while supporting the current-account surplus. Gold’s modest gain to 4,190.70 reflects persistent safe-haven demand that could indirectly bolster won sentiment during periods of dollar strength.

Bitcoin’s small advance offers limited spillover to Korean risk assets. Broader equity weakness in Seoul aligns with regional rotation away from growth-sensitive markets amid mixed global PMI signals. The won’s resilience on export optimism contrasts with heavier intervention elsewhere in Asia, suggesting Korea’s external position remains comparatively robust.

BoK Watch

The Bank of Korea’s heavy second-quarter intervention of $9.612 billion and cumulative $23 billion defense of the won underscore its priority on exchange-rate stability to contain imported inflation. With the policy rate at 2.81% since August, markets continue to price steady settings into the near term, supported by the 3-year yield’s 4 bp decline. ↓ p.3

Continuation

BoK Watch (continued)

The upcoming inflation release, expected near 2.9%, will directly inform whether the October MPC maintains its current forward guidance or signals earlier easing. Recent FSC-Bank of Korea coordination on stablecoin oversight and emergency bond-buyback agreements illustrates the central bank’s expanding role in financial-stability tools beyond conventional rate policy. Minutes and statements have emphasized data dependence on export and inflation prints, leaving little room for near-term surprises.

The 10-year yield’s 9 bp rise to 4.48% indicates markets are pricing some re-steepening even as intervention caps won volatility.

Korea Macro Daily(Beta Mode)