Chip Boom Lifts KOSPI Past 6,000; Won, Bonds Diverge

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Chip Boom Lifts KOSPI Past 6,000; Won, Bonds Diverge

105.40 Consumer Confidence1 GDP Growth3.40 GDP Growth Year-over-Year78 Business Confidence

KOSPI6,012.44+6.63%

KOSDAQ771.28+3.69%

USD/KRW1,339.73+0.97%

Samsung230,000.00-4.96%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
KOSPI	6,012.44	+6.63%
KOSDAQ	771.28	+3.69%
USD/KRW	1,339.73	+0.97%
Samsung	230,000.00	-4.96%
SK Hynix	1,532,000.00	+3.03%
Brent Crude	111.54	-3.28%
Gold	4,033.30	-0.45%
Bitcoin	79,096.54	-2.67%
Korea 3Y Govt Yield	3.80%	+4 bp
Korea 10Y Govt Yield	4.11%	+8 bp

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
Consumer Confidence Index	106.60	-	105.40
GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Advance Estimate	0.60	0.70	1
GDP Growth Year-over-Year Advance Estimate	3.70	3	3.40
Business Confidence Index	79	-	78

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time

Saturday (2026-10-31)
Exports Year-over-Year	83.70	-	20:00

Q3 GDP advanced 1.0% q/q and 3.4% y/y, beating consensus on AI-chip export strength
KOSPI surged 6.63% past 6,000 on SK Hynix's record profit; Samsung fell 4.96% on chip-supply concerns
BoK flagged won volatility as USD/KRW rose 0.97% to 1,339.73; 10Y yield climbed 8 bp to 4.11%

Yesterday's Recap

Korea's Q3 advance GDP printed 1.0% q/q versus 0.7% consensus and 3.4% y/y versus 3.0% expected, confirming an AI-semiconductor-led acceleration. Consumer Confidence slipped to 105.4 from 106.6, and Business Confidence eased to 78 from 79, signaling household and corporate caution beneath the headline growth. Equities diverged violently: KOSPI jumped 6.63% to 6,012.44 and KOSDAQ rose 3.69% to 771.28, with SK Hynix up 3.03% to 1,532,000 won after reporting a 632% on-year operating-profit surge and pledging $75bn in shareholder returns.

Samsung Electronics fell 4.96% to 230,000 won despite a 15-fold chip-profit jump, as investors balked at disclosure gaps and a worsening AI-chip shortage outlook. Rates sold off, with the 3Y yield up 4 bp to 3.80% and the 10Y up 8 bp to 4.11%, while USD/KRW rose 0.97% to 1,339.73 even as headlines noted a partial won recovery on dollar weakness. Brent crude fell 3.28% to $111.54, offering limited relief to import-cost pressure.

The Day Ahead

The domestic calendar is empty through Friday, leaving markets to digest the GDP print and chip-earnings flow. The next scheduled Korean release is October Exports Year-over-Year on Saturday, October 31, at 20:00 ET, with no consensus published and the prior reading at 83.7. Trade data will be scrutinized for confirmation that AI-chip demand is sustaining the export impulse implied by Q3 growth.

With no BoK speakers or data on deck, won direction and global risk appetite will dominate local price action. Bond investors will watch whether the 10Y holds above 4.10% after the post-GDP steepening.

Other Economic Notes

The GDP composition matters more than the headline: chip-led net exports are carrying growth while domestic confidence softens, a lopsided recovery that leaves Korea exposed to any AI-demand air pocket. Samsung's share decline despite strong chip profits highlights disclosure and execution concerns that could cap KOSPI breadth even as SK Hynix leads. Carbon-neutrality policy costs are estimated to shave 0.06–0.07 percentage points off annual growth through 2060, a slow-burn fiscal consideration.

↓ p.2

Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

Brent's retreat below $112 eases imported inflation pressure, but the BoK's pessimistic inflation path remains sensitive to energy reversals. Household leverage and property-linked credit stay the structural backdrop for financial-stability monitoring.

Global Macro News

The Fed held rates as US inflation stays elevated, keeping the dollar firm and pressuring Asian currencies including the won. AI-driven tech rallies lifted Taiwan and Korean equities while regional currencies retreated, underscoring the chip cycle's outsized role in North Asian markets. SK Hynix's blowout results and $75bn return plan reinforced global AI-capex optimism, though Samsung's warning of a worsening chip shortage complicates the supply narrative.

Brent's 3.28% drop to $111.54 reflects demand concerns and easing geopolitical risk premia, though Korea is weighing deployment options to the Strait of Hormuz. A BoK board member said the won is moving faster than expected, and headlines flagged the won's largest quarterly gain since 1998 on AI-chip demand—an unusual mix of strength and volatility. Global bond yields remain elevated, limiting room for Korean rate relief.

BoK Watch

The BoK held the base rate at 3.00% at its October 22 decision, following the August 27 setting, with the next meeting on November 26. The committee voted to hold, reflecting a tension between GDP running above 3% y/y and CPI at 2.88%, which sits close enough to target to argue against premature easing. ↓ p.3

Continuation

BoK Watch (continued)

Board member Hwang's warning that won moves are faster than expected signals discomfort with FX volatility even as the current-account surplus nears $500bn, a combination that complicates intervention optics. The BoK has flagged won volatility alongside AI-chip export strength in its outlook, suggesting the board sees growth upside but treats currency swings as a financial-stability risk. With Brent's surge having pushed Korea toward the BoK's pessimistic inflation path, the bar for a November cut looks higher than the growth data alone would imply.

Markets should read the hold as a signal that FX and inflation, not activity, anchor near-term policy; a sustained won rally could reopen easing space, while renewed weakness argues for patience.

Korea Macro Daily(Beta Mode)